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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Minnesota › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

U.S. Senate in Minnesota

Flanagan is clearly favored to win: Flanagan wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.

Flanagan (D)
87%
chance of winning
Tafoya (R)
13%
Average margin
D+7.2
80% of outcomes
R+1 to D+15
Partisan lean
D+5
Polls
19in our database

Flanagan is clearly favored to win: Flanagan wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.

Flanagan (D)
85%
chance of winning
Tafoya (R)
16%
Average margin
D+6.9
80% of outcomes
R+2 to D+16
Partisan lean
D+5
Polls
19in our database

Range of outcomes

D+7.2R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
D+6.9R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Flanagan 87%Tafoya 13%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Flanagan 85%Tafoya 16%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Democratic

Peggy Flanagan

Lieutenant governor of Minnesota (2019–present)

Experience
Statewide office or Congress
Raised
$10.3M
From individuals
$9.5M
Spent
$8.8M
Cash on hand
$1.5M

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Profile and career · Wikipedia

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodD+14.5Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+15.2Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Minnesota andlook-alike placesD+15.1Polling average16 polls, latest Oct 12D+4.4Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+7.2Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+6.9

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)1.13
Elected-experience edge1
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation2.08
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

R+10R+5EvenD+5D+10Avg. D+4.4Jul 11Nov 3
All 19 polls
PollsterDatesSampleFlanaganTafoyaMarginAdjusted
KSTP/SurveyUSAOct 8–Oct 12718 LV4542D+3D+3.8
Morning Consult for The Daily AgendaOct 2–Oct 71,000 RV4541D+4D+5.5
Rasmussen ReportsR-sponsoredOct 5–Oct 7856 LV4845D+3D+3.8
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy for KARE 11 & The Minnesota Star TribuneOct 5–Oct 7800 LV4743D+4D+4.0
GQRD-sponsoredOct 1–Oct 4800 LV5344D+9D+7.5
GQRD-sponsoredOct 1–Oct 4800 LV5042D+8D+7.5
Big Data PollR-sponsoredSep 29–Sep 30622 LV4038D+2
Big Data PollR-sponsoredSep 29–Sep 30622 LV4644D+2
InsiderAdvantageR-sponsoredSep 28–Sep 291,200 LV4645D+1D+2.1
co/efficientR-sponsoredSep 14–Sep 15833 LV4342D+1
KSTP/SurveyUSASep 9–Sep 14654 LV4242Even
Quantus InsightsR-sponsoredSep 8–Sep 10720 LV4844D+4
TIPP Insights for the League of American WorkersR-sponsoredAug 31–Sep 21,494 RV4038D+2
TIPP Insights for the League of American WorkersR-sponsoredAug 31–Sep 21,201 LV4442D+2
Deep Root AnalyticsR-sponsoredAug 17–Aug 18597 RV5045D+5
KTSP/SurveyUSAAug 13–Aug 17661 LV4641D+5
Impact Research for Craig's campaignD-sponsoredMay 26–May 28808 LV5144D+7
Emerson CollegeFeb 6–Feb 81,000 LV4741D+6
Impact Research for Craig's campaignD-sponsoredJul 8–Jul 11604 LV4845D+3

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 12, 2026.

The state

Lean D+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentD+1.7R+0.6 vs. nation2020 presidentD+7.3D+2.7 vs. nation2024 presidentD+4.3D+5.8 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
5,739,445
Adults with a B.A.+
39%
White, no degree
48%of adults
  • White 76%
  • Hispanic 6%
  • Black 7%
  • Asian 5%
  • Other / multiracial 6%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

3,176,011 two-party votes · D+4.3 · D+5.8 vs. the nation
✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.2%
Donald Trump (R)47.8%

2020

3,214,256 votes · D+5.7
✓ Tina Smith (D)48.7%
Jason Lewis (R)43.5%
Kevin O'Connor (LMN)5.9%
Oliver Steinberg (OTH)1.8%

2020 President Vote in this state

3,201,142 two-party votes · D+7.3 · D+2.7 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)53.6%
Donald Trump (R)46.4%

2018

2,587,356 votes · D+11.1
✓ Tina Smith (D)53.0%
Karin Housley (R)42.4%
Sarah Wellington (LMN)3.7%
Jerry Trooien (I)0.9%

2016 President Vote in this state

2,690,654 two-party votes · D+1.7 · R+0.6 vs. the nation
✓ Hillary Clinton (D)50.8%
Donald Trump (R)49.2%

2014

1,980,647 votes · D+10.7
✓ Al Franken (D)53.2%
Mike McFadden (R)42.9%
Steve Carlson (I)2.4%
Heather Johnson (L)1.5%

2008

2,885,281 votes · Even
✓ Al Franken (D)42.0%
Norm Coleman (R)42.0%
Dean Barkley (I)15.2%

2002

2,252,836 votes · R+2.3
✓ Norm Coleman (R)49.6%
Walter F. Mondale (D)47.4%
Jim Moore (I)2.0%
Paul Wellstone (D)0.5%

Also on the ballot in Minnesota

GovernorAmy KlobucharLisa Demuth94%Dem.92%Dem.