Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 74%no change
Expected seats 52.1 D · 47.9 R (0 D since Oct 8)
D 74%, 74% Democratic.D 69%no change
Expected seats 51.8 D · 48.2 R (−0.1 D since Oct 8)
D 69%, 69% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Oct 9
Friday, October 9, 2026
- Calls changed
- 3
- Party changes
- 1
- New polls
- 13
- Compared with
- Oct 8
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Oct 8. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 97%no change
Expected seats 237.3 D · 197.7 R (+0.3 D since Oct 8)
D 97%, 97% Democratic.D 93%no change
Expected seats 237.7 D · 197.3 R (+0.2 D since Oct 8)
D 93%, 93% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 69%▼ R +1
Expected seats 26.8 D · 23.2 R (−0.1 D since Oct 8)
D 69%, 69% Democratic.D 75%▼ R +1
Expected seats 27.4 D · 22.6 R (−0.1 D since Oct 8)
D 75%, 75% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+8.8no change
Forecast environment
D+9.1no change
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
No Senate or governor race, state legislative chamber or trifecta changed its rating or favored party since Oct 8.
Every call change
3 races changed rating or favored party since Oct 8 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
State legislatures 1 change in 1 chamber
Georgia House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-45Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New polls
13 polls new since Oct 8, in 12 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
Show 1 more
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Generic congressional ballot | TrueDot for NewsNation and Decision Desk HQ | Oct 5–Oct 9 | 974 LV | D 49 · R 42 | D+7 | thehill.com ↗ |
Fundraising
The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Oct 8.