Democratic
Dan Ahlers
Executive director of the South Dakota Democratic Party, former state senator (2008–2010), and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020
- Experience
- State legislature
South Dakota › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Dakota Governor
Rhoden is clearly favored to win: Rhoden wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Ahlers (D)
10%
chance of winning
Rhoden (R)
90%
- Average margin
- R+14.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+29 to Even
- Partisan lean
- R+29
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Rhoden is clearly favored to win: Rhoden wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Ahlers (D)
8%
chance of winning
Rhoden (R)
92%
- Average margin
- R+18.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+34 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+29
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
The candidates
RepublicanAppointed incumbent
Larry Rhoden
Incumbent governor (2025–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Dakota state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 7.22 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The state
Lean R+29: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 907,428
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 56%of adults
- White 80%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 12%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
418,940 two-party votes · R+29.9 · R+28.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.9%
Kamala Harris (D)35.1%
2022
350,166 votes · R+27.6✓ Kristi Noem (R)62.0%
Jamie Smith (D)35.2%
Tracey Quint (L)2.9%
2020 President Vote in this state
411,514 two-party votes · R+26.9 · R+31.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.4%
Joe Biden (D)36.6%
2018
338,715 votes · R+3.5✓ Kristi Noem And Larry Rhoden (R)51.0%
Billie Sutton And Michelle Lavallee (D)47.6%
Kurt Evans And Richard Shelatz (L)1.4%
2016 President Vote in this state
345,179 two-party votes · R+31.9 · R+34.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)34.0%
2014
266,026 votes · R+47.0✓ Dennis Daugaard (R)73.5%
Susan Wismer (D)26.5%
2010
317,083 votes · R+23.0✓ Dennis Daugaard (R)61.5%
Scott Heidepriem (D)38.5%
2006
328,216 votes · R+26.1✓ Mike Rounds (R)63.1%
Jack Billion (D)36.9%
2002
330,183 votes · R+15.0✓ Mike Rounds (R)57.5%
Jim Abbott (D)42.5%