Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 72%no change
Expected seats 52.0 D · 48.0 R (0 D since Oct 1)
D 72%, 72% Democratic.D 67%no change
Expected seats 51.7 D · 48.3 R (0 D since Oct 1)
D 67%, 67% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Oct 2
Friday, October 2, 2026
- Calls changed
- 3
- Party changes
- 1
- New polls
- 7
- Compared with
- Oct 1
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Oct 1. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 95%no change
Expected seats 235.4 D · 199.6 R (−0.2 D since Oct 1)
D 95%, 95% Democratic.D 89%no change
Expected seats 235.2 D · 199.8 R (−0.3 D since Oct 1)
D 89%, 89% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 69%no change
Expected seats 26.9 D · 23.1 R (0 D since Oct 1)
D 69%, 69% Democratic.D 73%no change
Expected seats 27.3 D · 22.7 R (0 D since Oct 1)
D 73%, 73% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+8.7no change
Forecast environment
D+8.8no change
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Trifectas
| State | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| Nevada | D trifecta 40% · R trifecta <1% | D trifecta 40% · R trifecta <1% |
Every call change
3 races changed rating or favored party since Oct 1 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
New polls
7 polls new since Oct 1, in 4 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California Lieutenant Governor | Independent Voter Project | Sep 23–Oct 2 | 2,906 LV | D 41 · R 31 | D+10 | ivn.us ↗ |
| California Secretary of State | Independent Voter Project | Sep 23–Oct 2 | 2,906 LV | D 41 · R 31 | D+10 | ivn.us ↗ |
| Florida's 16th District | Public Policy PollingD sponsor | Oct 1–Oct 2 | 530 RV | D 39 · R 43 | R+4 | drive.google.com ↗ |
| Ohio's 1st District | Torchlight Strategies for Conroy's campaignR sponsor | Sep 29–Oct 2 | 400 LV | D 46 · R 44 | D+2 | x.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | CygnalR sponsor | Oct 1–Oct 2 | 1,500 LV | D 52 · R 43 | D+9 | cygn.al ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | CBS News/YouGov | Sep 30–Oct 2 | 1,572 LV | D 54 · R 45 | D+9 | assets1.cbsnewsstatic.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | ActiVote | Sep 22–Oct 2 | 1,000 LV | D 52 · R 48 | D+4 | activote.net ↗ |
Fundraising
The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Oct 1.