Democratic
Everett Wess
Attorney and perennial candidate
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $116.9K
- From individuals
- $46.2K
- Spent
- $105.6K
- Cash on hand
- $11.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Alabama › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
U.S. Senate in Alabama
Moore is very likely to win: Moore wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Wess (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Moore (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+19.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+28 to R+11
- Partisan lean
- R+30
- Polls
- 2in our database
Moore is very likely to win: Moore wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Wess (D)
1%
chance of winning
Moore (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+19.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+29 to R+10
- Partisan lean
- R+30
- Polls
- 2in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Barry Moore
U.S. representative from AL-1 (2021–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $4.5M
- From individuals
- $2.8M
- Spent
- $4.1M
- Cash on hand
- $495.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.06 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 6.39 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Wess | Moore | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMG Research for Alabama Policy ActionR-sponsored | Sep 21–Sep 25 | 800 RV | 33 | 54 | R+21 | R+18.4 |
| yes. every kid. | Jul 8–Jul 11 | 601 LV | 32 | 47 | R+15 | R+18.6 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 25, 2026.
The state
Lean R+30: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 5,086,768
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 46%of adults
- White 63%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 26%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
2,235,028 two-party votes · R+30.9 · R+29.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.4%
Kamala Harris (D)34.6%
2020
2,316,445 votes · R+20.4✓ Tommy Tuberville (R)60.1%
Doug Jones (D)39.7%
2020 President Vote in this state
2,290,794 two-party votes · R+25.8 · R+30.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.9%
Joe Biden (D)37.1%
2017 special
1,348,720 votes · D+1.7✓ Jones, Doug (D)50.0%
Moore, Roy (R)48.3%
Write-in (—)1.7%
2016 President Vote in this state
2,047,802 two-party votes · R+28.7 · R+31.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)35.6%
2014
795,606 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Jeff Sessions (R)100.0%
2008
2,057,774 votes · R+26.9✓ Jeff Sessions (R)63.4%
Vivian Davis Figures (D)36.6%
2002
1,351,673 votes · R+19.1✓ Jeff Sessions (R)58.6%
Susan Parker (D)39.9%
Jeff Allen (L)1.5%