Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 75%▲ D +2
Expected seats 52.1 D · 47.9 R (+0.2 D since Sep 14)
D 75%, 75% Democratic.D 68%▲ D +3
Expected seats 51.8 D · 48.2 R (+0.3 D since Sep 14)
D 68%, 68% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 15
Tuesday, September 15, 2026
- Calls changed
- 11
- Party changes
- 10
- New polls
- 17
- Compared with
- Sep 14
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 14. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 94%▲ D +1
Expected seats 235.5 D · 199.5 R (+1.5 D since Sep 14)
D 94%, 94% Democratic.D 89%▲ D +2
Expected seats 235.6 D · 199.4 R (+1.5 D since Sep 14)
D 89%, 89% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 74%▲ D +2
Expected seats 27.1 D · 22.9 R (+0.1 D since Sep 14)
D 74%, 74% Democratic.D 78%▲ D +2
Expected seats 27.6 D · 22.4 R (+0.2 D since Sep 14)
D 78%, 78% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+8.6D +0.6
Forecast environment
D+8.7D +0.5
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Sep 14 → now.
Senate races
- U.S. Senate in North CarolinaLikely D → Solid D
Trifectas
| State | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| Nevada | D trifecta 60% · R trifecta <1% | D trifecta 61% · R trifecta <1% |
Every call change
11 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 14 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Senate 1 change
- U.S. Senate in North CarolinaLikely D → Solid D
State legislatures 8 changes in 7 chambers
Hawaii State Senate · 1 change
- SD-20Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Massachusetts State Senate · 1 change
- Worcester and HampshireNow D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New Hampshire House of Representatives · 2 changes
New Hampshire State Senate · 1 change
- SD-12Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Pennsylvania House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-13Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Vermont House of Representatives · 1 change
- Caledonia-3 State HouseNow D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Wisconsin State Assembly · 1 change
- AD-82Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New polls
17 polls new since Sep 14, in 6 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate in Maine | Quantus InsightsR sponsor | Sep 14–Sep 15 | 621 LV | D 47 · R 48 | R+1 | quantusinsights.org ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Maine | Quantus InsightsR sponsor | Sep 14–Sep 15 | 621 LV | D 46 · R 47 | R+1 | quantusinsights.org ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Minnesota | co/efficientR sponsor | Sep 14–Sep 15 | 833 LV | D 43 · R 42 | D+1 | battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Montana | Quantus InsightsR sponsor | Sep 14–Sep 15 | 625 LV | Ind. 24 · R 44 | R+20 | quantusinsights.org ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Montana | Aspect Strategic for Montana Freedom PAC, which supports Bodnar | Sep 7–Sep 15 | 715 LV | Ind. 32 · R 44 | R+12 | x.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in North Carolina | Harper Polling for The Carolina JournalR sponsor | Sep 13–Sep 15 | 608 LV | D 49 · R 34 | D+15 | carolinajournal.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in North Carolina | Catawba College/YouGov | Sep 4–Sep 15 | 885 LV | D 47 · R 35 | D+12 | catawba.edu ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in North Carolina | Catawba College/YouGov | Sep 4–Sep 15 | 885 LV | D 48 · R 37 | D+11 | catawba.edu ↗ |
| Minnesota Governor | co/efficientR sponsor | Sep 14–Sep 15 | 833 LV | D 47 · R 45 | D+2 | battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗ |
| Utah's 3rd District | Lighthouse Research for the Utah Debate Commission | Sep 2–Sep 15 | 508 LV | D 26 · R 45 | R+19 | utahdebatecommission.org ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Marist University for NPR and PBS News | Sep 14–Sep 15 | 1,280 RV | D 53 · R 41 | D+12 | maristpoll.marist.edu ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Big Data PollR sponsor | Sep 13–Sep 15 | 2,633 LV | D 48 · R 37 | D+11 | bigdatapoll.com ↗ |
Show 5 more
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Generic congressional ballot | Big Data PollR sponsor | Sep 13–Sep 15 | 2,947 RV | D 45 · R 36 | D+9 | bigdatapoll.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Emerson College/RealClear Opinion Research for the United America Institute | Sep 12–Sep 15 | 1,500 RV | D 37 · R 29 | D+8 | uniteamerica.org ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies for NBC News | Sep 11–Sep 15 | 1,000 RV | D 50 · R 45 | D+5 | nbcnews.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Morning Consult for Deseret News & the Hinckley Institute of Politics | Sep 10–Sep 15 | 2,102 RV | D 46 · R 43 | D+3 | deseret.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | RMG Research for Napolitan News Service | Sep 8–Sep 15 | 2,000 RV | D 51 · R 43 | D+8 | napolitannews.org ↗ |
Fundraising
The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 14.