99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

New York › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

New York Governor

Fusion

Hochul is very likely to win: Hochul wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.

Hochul (D)
98%
chance of winning
Blakeman (R)
2%
Average margin
D+13.6
80% of outcomes
D+6 to D+22
Partisan lean
D+15
Polls
28in our database

Hochul is very likely to win: Hochul wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.

Hochul (D)
97%
chance of winning
Blakeman (R)
3%
Average margin
D+14.9
80% of outcomes
D+6 to D+25
Partisan lean
D+15
Polls
28in our database

Range of outcomes

D+13.6R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30
D+14.9R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30

How this race is decided

Fusion voting

Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Conservative, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Hochul 98%Blakeman 2%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Hochul 97%Blakeman 3%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
New York state offices
−0.5Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
Environment here
D+9.0Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodD+24.2Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+18.8Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in New York andlook-alike placesD+19.6Polling average26 polls, latest Oct 12D+12.8Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+13.6Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+14.9

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge0.67
First-term incumbent1
Seat's last result vs. expectation-10.59
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation-10.59

Polls

R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20Avg. D+12.8Nov 10Nov 3
All 28 polls
PollsterDatesSampleHochulBlakemanMarginAdjusted
Pollfinity ResearchOct 8–Oct 12499 RV4744D+3D+6.2
Beacon ResearchOct 1–Oct 6820 RV5331D+22D+24.1
Emerson College for WPIXOct 3–Oct 5900 LV5240D+12D+14.7
Marist UniversityOct 1–Oct 41,361 RV5342D+11D+8.5
co/efficient for Coalition to Protect Nassau TaxpayersR-sponsoredSep 23–Sep 251,046 LV4841D+7
Quinnipiac UniversitySep 17–Sep 201,026 LV5839D+19D+20.3
Siena CollegeSep 11–Sep 171,144 LV5041D+9D+6.4
McLaughlin & Associates for Blakeman's campaignR-sponsoredAug 27–Aug 31800 LV5046D+4
Concord Public Opinion Partners for Education Reform NowD-sponsoredAug 19–Aug 21505 LV5034D+16
Siena CollegeAug 3–Aug 6811 LV4939D+10
Moxie Strategies for the Firefighters Association of the State of New YorkJul 22–Jul 28813 RV4937D+12
Red Oak Strategic for Strong And Safe, a super PAC supporting BlakemanR-sponsoredJul 7–Jul 122,000 RV4743D+4
co/efficient for Coalition to Protect Nassau TaxpayersR-sponsoredJun 30–Jul 21,085 LV4741D+6
Siena CollegeJun 17–Jun 231,120 RV5232D+20
Pollfinity ResearchJun 11–Jun 14229 RV5040D+10
Pollfinity ResearchJun 11–Jun 14229 RV4635D+11
Siena CollegeApr 27–Apr 30806 RV4933D+16
Siena CollegeMar 23–Mar 26804 RV4734D+13
Echelon Insights/Tusk StrategiesMar 24–Mar 26500 RV5540D+15
McLaughlin & Associates for Blakeman's campaignR-sponsoredMar 4–Mar 8800 LV5243D+9
Siena CollegeFeb 23–Feb 26805 RV5131D+20
Marist UniversityFeb 16–Feb 191,442 RV5033D+17
MAD Global Strategy for Natural Allies for a Clean Energy FutureFeb 2–Feb 4600 LV4734D+13
Siena CollegeJan 26–Jan 28802 RV5428D+26
John Zogby StrategiesJan 6–Jan 8844 LV5339D+14
John Zogby StrategiesJan 6–Jan 8844 LV4934D+15
Siena CollegeDec 8–Dec 12801 RV5025D+25
J.L. PartnersR-sponsoredNov 9–Nov 10500 LV4736D+11

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 12, 2026.

The state

Lean D+15: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentD+23.5D+21.3 vs. nation2020 presidentD+23.4D+18.9 vs. nation2024 presidentD+12.7D+14.2 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
19,774,787
Adults with a B.A.+
40%
White, no degree
30%of adults
  • White 53%
  • Hispanic 20%
  • Black 13%
  • Asian 9%
  • Other / multiracial 5%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

8,198,094 two-party votes · D+12.7 · D+14.2 vs. the nation
✓ Kamala Harris (D)56.3%
Donald Trump (R)43.7%

2022

5,992,116 votes · D+6.2
✓ Kathy C Hochul (D)52.7%
Lee Zeldin (R)46.5%
Write-In (—)0.8%

2020 President Vote in this state

8,475,783 two-party votes · D+23.4 · D+18.9 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)61.7%
Donald Trump (R)38.3%

2018

5,385,837 votes · D+27.6
✓ Andrew M Cuomo (D)61.0%
Marc Molinaro (R)34.6%
Howie Hawkins (OTH)1.8%
Larry Sharpe (L)1.6%
Stephanie A Miner (OTH)1.0%

2016 President Vote in this state

7,375,658 two-party votes · D+23.5 · D+21.3 vs. the nation
✓ Hillary Clinton (D)61.8%
Donald Trump (R)38.2%

2014

3,812,708 votes · D+14.8
✓ Andrew Cuomo (D)54.3%
Rob Astorino (R)40.3%
Howie Hawkins (G)4.8%

2010

4,459,905 votes · D+30.6
✓ Andrew M. Cuomo (D)65.3%
Carl Paladino (R)34.7%

2006

4,361,044 votes · D+41.6
✓ Eliot Spitzer (D)70.8%
John Faso (R)29.2%

2002

4,578,078 votes · R+19.2
✓ George Pataki (R)49.4%
Carl McCall (D)33.5%
Tom Golisano (I)14.3%
Gerard Cronin (RTL)1.0%
Stanley Aronowitz (G)0.9%