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Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 27

Sunday, September 27, 2026

Calls changed
2
Party changes
1
New polls
31
Compared with
Sep 26

Top line

The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 26. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.

Senate

Chance of a Senate majority

D 77%no change

D50%RSep 1Sep 27

Expected seats 52.3 D · 47.7 R (−0.1 D since Sep 26)

D 77%, 77% Democratic.

D 71%no change

D50%RSep 1Sep 27

Expected seats 52.0 D · 48.0 R (−0.1 D since Sep 26)

D 71%, 71% Democratic.

House

Chance of a House majority

D 96%no change

D50%RSep 1Sep 27

Expected seats 236.4 D · 198.6 R (+0.2 D since Sep 26)

D 96%, 96% Democratic.

D 90%no change

D50%RSep 1Sep 27

Expected seats 236.3 D · 198.7 R (+0.2 D since Sep 26)

D 90%, 90% Democratic.

Governors

Chance of a majority of governorships

D 70%no change

D50%RSep 1Sep 27

Expected seats 27.0 D · 23.0 R (0 D since Sep 26)

D 70%, 70% Democratic.

D 75%no change

D50%RSep 1Sep 27

Expected seats 27.3 D · 22.7 R (0 D since Sep 26)

D 75%, 75% Democratic.

Generic ballot (likely voters)

D+9.0D +0.1

Forecast environment

D+9.2D +0.1

Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.

Major changes

Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).

No Senate or governor race, state legislative chamber or trifecta changed its rating or favored party since Sep 26.

Every call change

2 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 26 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.

State legislatures 2 changes in 2 chambers

Florida House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-100Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Oregon House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-15Lean R → Likely R

New polls

31 polls new since Sep 26, in 12 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.

New polls
RacePollsterDatesSampleResultMarginSource
U.S. Senate in Florida (special)Change Research for Freedom Project USAD sponsorSep 25–Sep 271,063 LVD 47 · R 48R+1changeresearch.com ↗
U.S. Senate in MichiganMarist UniversitySep 24–Sep 271,235 RVD 51 · R 44D+7maristpoll.marist.edu ↗
U.S. Senate in MichiganGuidant Polling & Strategy for Public First ActionSep 20–Sep 27800 LVD 48 · R 43D+5static01.nyt.com ↗
U.S. Senate in MichiganGuidant Polling & Strategy for Public First ActionSep 20–Sep 27800 LVD 49 · R 45D+4static01.nyt.com ↗
U.S. Senate in MichiganThe Tyson Group for Alliance for a Better FutureR sponsorSep 24–Sep 27600 LVD 44 · R 43D+1betterfutureai.org ↗
U.S. Senate in New HampshireTrafalgar GroupR sponsorSep 26–Sep 271,082 LVD 47 · R 41D+6thetrafalgargroup.org ↗
U.S. Senate in Ohio (special)Big Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR sponsorSep 26–Sep 27680 LVD 46 · R 43D+3bigdatapoll.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Ohio (special)Big Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR sponsorSep 26–Sep 27680 LVD 46 · R 41D+5bigdatapoll.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Ohio (special)Big Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR sponsorSep 26–Sep 27735 RVD 45 · R 41D+4bigdatapoll.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Ohio (special)Big Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR sponsorSep 26–Sep 27735 RVD 44 · R 40D+4bigdatapoll.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Ohio (special)Marist UniversitySep 24–Sep 271,298 RVD 51 · R 43D+8maristpoll.marist.edu ↗
U.S. Senate in Ohio (special)Suffolk University for USA TodaySep 23–Sep 27500 LVD 47 · R 44D+3suffolk.edu ↗
Show 19 more
New polls (continued)
RacePollsterDatesSampleResultMarginSource
U.S. Senate in South DakotaZenith Research for Bengs' campaignSep 24–Sep 27500 LVD 47 · R 53R+6data.ddhq.io ↗
U.S. Senate in South DakotaZenith Research for Bengs' campaignSep 24–Sep 27500 LVD 38 · R 44R+6data.ddhq.io ↗
U.S. Senate in TexasPulse Decision Science for Paxton's campaignR sponsorSep 24–Sep 27800 LVD 45 · R 48R+3x.com ↗
Alaska GovernorCygnalR sponsorSep 24–Sep 27502 LVD 44 · R 8D+36cygn.al ↗
Florida GovernorChange Research for Freedom Project USAD sponsorSep 25–Sep 271,063 LVD 48 · R 46D+2changeresearch.com ↗
Maryland GovernorUniversity of Maryland, Baltimore CountySep 22–Sep 27776 LVD 51 · R 24D+27politics.umbc.edu ↗
Michigan GovernorMarist UniversitySep 24–Sep 271,235 RVD 53 · R 41D+12maristpoll.marist.edu ↗
Michigan GovernorGuidant Polling & Strategy for Public First ActionSep 20–Sep 27800 LVD 50 · R 45D+5static01.nyt.com ↗
Ohio GovernorBig Data PollR sponsorSep 26–Sep 27680 LVD 47 · R 48R+1bigdatapoll.com ↗
Ohio GovernorBig Data PollR sponsorSep 26–Sep 27680 LVD 44 · R 46R+2bigdatapoll.com ↗
Ohio GovernorBig Data PollR sponsorSep 26–Sep 27735 RVD 46 · R 47R+1bigdatapoll.com ↗
Ohio GovernorBig Data PollR sponsorSep 26–Sep 27735 RVD 43 · R 45R+2bigdatapoll.com ↗
Ohio GovernorMarist UniversitySep 24–Sep 271,298 RVD 50 · R 44D+6maristpoll.marist.edu ↗
Ohio GovernorSuffolk University for USA TodaySep 23–Sep 27500 LVD 50 · R 41D+9suffolk.edu ↗
Oregon GovernorDHM Research for Oregon Public BroadcastingSep 17–Sep 27915 LVD 46 · R 47R+1opb.org ↗
Oregon GovernorDHM Research for Oregon Public BroadcastingSep 17–Sep 27915 LVD 44 · R 46R+2opb.org ↗
Generic congressional ballotQuinnipiac UniversitySep 24–Sep 271,032 RVD 51 · R 39D+12poll.qu.edu ↗
Generic congressional ballotMorning ConsultSep 21–Sep 2718,786 LVD 50 · R 43D+7pro-assets.morningconsult.com ↗
Presidential approvalQuinnipiac UniversitySep 24–Sep 271,032 RVApprove 34 · Disapprove 61−27 netpoll.qu.edu ↗

Fundraising

The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.

State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.

Candidates

No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 26.