99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Michigan › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Michigan Governor

Benson is clearly favored to win: Benson wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.

Benson (D)
90%
chance of winning
James (R)
10%
Average margin
D+7.2
80% of outcomes
Even to D+14
Partisan lean
Even
Polls
32in our database

Benson is clearly favored to win: Benson wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.

Benson (D)
88%
chance of winning
James (R)
12%
Average margin
D+7.0
80% of outcomes
R+1 to D+15
Partisan lean
Even
Polls
32in our database

Range of outcomes

D+7.2R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
D+7.0R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Benson 90%James 10%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Benson 88%James 12%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Michigan state offices
−0.4Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
Environment here
D+9.1Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodD+7.9Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+7.7Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Michigan andlook-alike placesD+7.3Polling average28 polls, latest Oct 9D+7.0Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+7.2Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+7.1

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge0
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation14.98
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

R+10EvenD+10Avg. D+7.0Jan 6Nov 3
All 32 polls
PollsterDatesSampleBensonJamesMarginAdjusted
Wedgewood PollsOct 8–Oct 9607 LV5545D+10D+9.7
YouGovSep 22–Oct 43,949 LV4845D+3D+1.9
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsOct 1–Oct 1682 LV4639D+7D+8.3
Z to A Research for Rust Belt Rising, which supports DemocratsD-sponsoredSep 28–Oct 1483 LV5040D+10
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsSep 24–Sep 281,203 RV5445D+9D+8.4
Marist UniversitySep 24–Sep 271,235 RV5341D+12
Guidant Polling & Strategy for Public First ActionSep 20–Sep 27800 LV5045D+5
co/efficientR-sponsoredSep 21–Sep 23843 LV4744D+3
New York Times/Siena UniversitySep 15–Sep 22605 LV4843D+5
Beacon Research/Cygnal for Michigan EnjoyerSep 18–Sep 21600 LV4538D+7
Suffolk UniversitySep 16–Sep 20500 LV5134D+17D+18.5
Torchlight Strategies for Common Sense for America PAC, which supports RepublicansR-sponsoredSep 15–Sep 19643 LV4241D+1
Emerson CollegeSep 12–Sep 141,000 LV4942D+7D+9.7
The Washington Post/SSPGSep 10–Sep 14803 LV5341D+12
SSRS for CNNAug 31–Sep 6843 LV5041D+9
Glengariff Group for The Detroit News and WDIV-TVAug 31–Sep 3600 LV4743D+4
EPIC-MRA for MIRS, a nonpartisan tipsheetAug 22–Aug 28600 LV4844D+4
EPIC-MRA for MIRS, a nonpartisan tipsheetAug 22–Aug 28600 LV4541D+4
Michigan State University/YouGovAug 10–Aug 20913 RV4939D+10
Michigan State University/YouGovAug 10–Aug 20779 LV5243D+9
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPAug 9–Aug 11877 LV4944D+5
TIPP Insights for the League of American Workers, a conservative advocacy group founded by Steve Cortes, former senior advisor to President Donald TrumpR-sponsoredAug 6–Aug 101,528 RV4834D+14
TIPP Insights for the League of American Workers, a conservative advocacy group founded by Steve Cortes, former senior advisor to President Donald TrumpR-sponsoredAug 6–Aug 101,215 LV5337D+16
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsAug 6–Aug 101,006 RV5247D+5
EPIC-MRAJul 24–Jul 31600 LV4738D+9
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsJul 28–Jul 29672 LV4644D+2
Glengariff GroupJul 22–Jul 24600 LV4439D+5
Mitchell Research & Communications for MIRS, a nonpartisan tipsheetJun 11–Jun 13827 LV5140D+11
TIPP Insights for the League of American Workers, a conservative advocacy group founded by Steve Cortes, former senior advisor to President Donald TrumpR-sponsoredMay 20–May 231,456 RV4635D+11
TIPP Insights for the League of American Workers, a conservative advocacy group founded by Steve Cortes, former senior advisor to President Donald TrumpR-sponsoredMay 20–May 231,163 LV4938D+11
Glengariff Group for The Detroit Regional Chamber, which endorsed Duggan in July 2025Jan 27–Feb 2— LV4541D+4
Glengariff Group for WDIV-TV and The Detroit NewsJan 2–Jan 6600 LV4745D+2

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 9, 2026.

The state

Lean Even: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+0.2R+2.5 vs. nation2020 presidentD+2.8R+1.7 vs. nation2024 presidentR+1.4D+0.1 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
10,077,761
Adults with a B.A.+
32%
White, no degree
50%of adults
  • White 72%
  • Hispanic 6%
  • Black 13%
  • Asian 3%
  • Other / multiracial 5%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

5,553,169 two-party votes · R+1.4 · D+0.1 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)50.7%
Kamala Harris (D)49.3%

2022

4,432,307 votes · D+10.4
✓ Gretchen Whitmer (D)54.2%
Tudor M Dixon (R)44.0%
Mary Buzuma (L)0.9%

2020 President Vote in this state

5,453,892 two-party votes · D+2.8 · R+1.7 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)51.4%
Donald Trump (R)48.6%

2018

4,250,585 votes · D+9.9
✓ Gretchen Whitmer (D)53.3%
Bill Schuette (R)43.7%
Bill Gelineau (L)1.3%
Todd Schleiger (OTH)0.7%
Jennifer V Kurland (OTH)0.7%

2016 President Vote in this state

4,548,382 two-party votes · R+0.2 · R+2.5 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)50.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.9%

2014

3,086,456 votes · R+4.2
✓ Rick Snyder (R)52.1%
Mark H. Schauer (D)47.9%

2010

3,162,154 votes · R+18.6
✓ Rick Snyder (R)59.3%
Virg Bernero (D)40.7%

2006

3,750,599 votes · D+14.2
✓ Jennifer M. Granholm (D)57.1%
Dick DeVos (R)42.9%

2002

3,139,900 votes · D+4.1
✓ Jennifer M. Granholm (D)52.0%
Dick Posthumus (R)48.0%

Also on the ballot in Michigan

U.S. SenateAbdul El-SayedMike Rogers76%Dem.76%Dem.