Top-four primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party; the four with the most votes advance to November.
Alaska › Alaska House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Alaska House District 18
RCVTop fourProjected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (78%).
Groh is favored to win: Groh wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.
Groh (D)
78%
chance of winning
Sager (R)
22%
- Average margin
- D+5.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (49% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Groh (D)
49%
chance of winning
Sager (R)
51%
- Average margin
- R+0.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Ranked-choice voting
Voters rank the finalists. If nobody has a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to each voter's next choice. The forecast models the final two-candidate round.
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Cliff Groh
Republican
Dan Sager
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Alaska state offices
- +1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+11.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.7How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.25 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 11.26 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+9: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 22,512
- People per km²
- 179
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 33%of adults
- White 46%
- Hispanic 17%
- Black 6%
- Asian 8%
- Other / multiracial 23%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
3,734 votes · R+0.6✓ David Nelson (R)50.3%
Cliff Groh (D)49.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
4,614 two-party votes · R+16.4 · R+14.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.2%
Kamala Harris (D)41.8%
2022
2,105 votes · R+11.0✓ David Nelson (R)44.0%
Cliff Groh (D)35.3%
Lyn D Franks (D)20.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,245 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Harriet A Drummond (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,835 two-party votes · D+12.2 · D+7.6 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)56.1%
Donald Trump (R)43.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,124 two-party votes · R+3.5 · R+5.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.3%