Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia Governor
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (51% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Bottoms wins Nov 3
47%
Runoff Dec 1
7%
Jackson wins Nov 3
46%
Including the runoff: Bottoms 51% · Jackson 49% to win the seat. In a runoff, Bottoms wins 50% of the time.
- Average margin
- D+0.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+8
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- 20in our database
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (52% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Bottoms wins Nov 3
49%
Runoff Dec 1
6%
Jackson wins Nov 3
45%
Including the runoff: Bottoms 52% · Jackson 48% to win the seat. In a runoff, Bottoms wins 50% of the time.
- Average margin
- D+0.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+10
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- 20in our database
Range of outcomes
How this race is decided
The candidates
Democratic
Keisha Lance Bottoms
Former director of the Office of Public Engagement (2022–2023) and former mayor of Atlanta (2018–2022)
- Experience
- Local office
Republican
Rick Jackson
Healthcare executive
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Georgia state offices
- −0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.4Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.24 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 20 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Bottoms | Jackson | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantageR-sponsored | Oct 12–Oct 13 | 800 LV | 47 | 49 | R+2 | R+1.0 |
| Wedgewood Polls | Oct 2–Oct 3 | 600 LV | 49 | 51 | R+2 | R+2.3 |
| InsiderAdvantageR-sponsored | Sep 22–Sep 23 | 1,200 LV | 46 | 48 | R+2 | R+0.9 |
| Big Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR-sponsored | Sep 21–Sep 23 | 712 RV | 50 | 50 | Even | D+0.8 |
| Big Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR-sponsored | Sep 21–Sep 23 | 712 RV | 46 | 48 | R+2 | D+0.8 |
| Big Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR-sponsored | Sep 21–Sep 23 | 678 LV | 49.5 | 50.5 | R+1 | D+0.8 |
| Big Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR-sponsored | Sep 21–Sep 23 | 678 LV | 47 | 49 | R+2 | D+0.8 |
| YouGov | Sep 15–Sep 18 | 3,414 RV | 44 | 45 | R+1 | R+3.2 |
| YouGov | Sep 15–Sep 18 | 3,299 LV | 44 | 46 | R+2 | R+3.2 |
| YouGov | Sep 15–Sep 18 | 3,069 LV | 44 | 47 | R+3 | R+3.2 |
| Rasmussen ReportsR-sponsored | Sep 14–Sep 14 | 1,019 LV | 45 | 48 | R+3 | R+2.2 |
| InsiderAdvantageR-sponsored | Aug 16–Aug 17 | 800 LV | 46 | 46 | Even | |
| Quantus Insights for the Natural Gas Association of GeorgiaR-sponsored | Jul 29–Aug 1 | 815 LV | 46 | 45 | D+1 | |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARP | Jul 13–Jul 16 | 1,060 LV | 48 | 46 | D+2 | |
| State Navigate | Jul 10–Jul 13 | 448 LV | 51 | 44 | D+7 | |
| State Navigate | Jul 10–Jul 13 | 448 LV | 50 | 43 | D+7 | |
| Wick | Jun 27–Jun 30 | 1,175 LV | 43 | 43 | Even | |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News | Jun 23–Jun 27 | 1,002 RV | 52 | 47 | D+5 | |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners for Education Reform Now AdvocacyD-sponsored | May 30–Jun 2 | 510 LV | 53 | 38 | D+15 | |
| Echelon Insights for NetChoiceR-sponsored | Apr 3–Apr 9 | 407 LV | 49 | 43 | D+6 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 13, 2026.
The state
Lean R+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 10,940,407
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 33%of adults
- White 49%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 31%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
5,211,134 two-party votes · R+2.2 · R+0.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.1%
Kamala Harris (D)48.9%
2022
3,953,433 votes · R+7.6✓ Brian Kemp (R)53.4%
Stacey Abrams (D)45.9%
Shane Hazel (L)0.7%
2020 President Vote in this state
4,935,487 two-party votes · D+0.2 · R+4.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.1%
Donald Trump (R)49.9%
2018
3,939,328 votes · R+1.4✓ Brian Kemp (R)50.2%
Stacey Abrams (D)48.8%
Ted Metz (L)0.9%
2016 President Vote in this state
3,967,067 two-party votes · R+5.3 · R+7.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.3%
2014
2,490,031 votes · R+8.0✓ Nathan Deal (R)54.0%
Jason J. Carter (D)46.0%
2010
2,472,843 votes · R+10.5✓ Nathan Deal (R)55.2%
Roy E. Barnes (D)44.8%
2006
2,040,773 votes · R+20.5✓ Sonny Perdue (R)60.3%
Mark Taylor (D)39.7%
2002
1,978,739 votes · R+5.3✓ Sonny Perdue (R)52.6%
Roy E. Barnes (D)47.4%