Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 74%▲ D +1
Expected seats 52.1 D · 47.9 R (+0.1 D since Oct 13)
D 74%, 74% Democratic.D 71%▲ D +1
Expected seats 52.0 D · 48.0 R (+0.1 D since Oct 13)
D 71%, 71% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Oct 14
Wednesday, October 14, 2026
- Calls changed
- 3
- Party changes
- 3
- New polls
- 8
- New FEC totals
- 35
- Compared with
- Oct 13
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Oct 13. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 97%no change
Expected seats 238.2 D · 196.8 R (+0.6 D since Oct 13)
D 97%, 97% Democratic.D 94%▲ D +1
Expected seats 238.8 D · 196.2 R (+0.6 D since Oct 13)
D 94%, 94% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 72%▲ D +1
Expected seats 27.1 D · 22.9 R (+0.1 D since Oct 13)
D 72%, 72% Democratic.D 77%▲ D +1
Expected seats 27.6 D · 22.4 R (+0.1 D since Oct 13)
D 77%, 77% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+9.0D +0.2
Forecast environment
D+9.5D +0.2
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Oct 13 → now.
Governor races
- Georgia GovernorNow D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Every call change
3 races changed rating or favored party since Oct 13 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Governors 1 change
- Georgia GovernorNow D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New polls
8 polls new since Oct 13, in 5 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate in Kansas | InsiderAdvantageR sponsor | Oct 13–Oct 14 | 1,200 LV | D 47 · R 48 | R+1 |
| U.S. Senate in Maine | InsiderAdvantageR sponsor | Oct 13–Oct 14 | 1,200 LV | D 49 · R 47 | D+2 |
| U.S. Senate in Mississippi | Wedgewood Polls | Oct 12–Oct 14 | 511 LV | D 48 · R 52 | R+4 |
| U.S. Senate in Texas | InsiderAdvantageR sponsor | Oct 13–Oct 14 | 1,200 LV | D 48 · R 49 | R+1 |
| U.S. Senate in Texas | ActiVote | Sep 30–Oct 14 | 400 LV | D 52 · R 48 | D+4 |
| Texas Governor | ActiVote | Sep 30–Oct 14 | 400 LV | D 49 · R 51 | R+2 |
| Generic congressional ballot | RMG Research for Napolitan News Service | Oct 13–Oct 14 | 2,000 RV | D 51 · R 43 | D+8 |
| Generic congressional ballot | ActiVote | Oct 4–Oct 14 | 1,000 LV | D 53 · R 47 | D+6 |
Fundraising
35 federal nominees or incumbents with new FEC totals since Oct 13. Two-year totals (2025–26) of their authorized committees.
| Candidate | Race | Raised | New | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Foxx Republican | North Carolina's 5th District | $2,093,456 | +$430,852 | $3,473,663 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Adrian Smith Republican | Nebraska's 3rd District | $2,178,113 | +$400,699 | $1,084,112 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| LaMonica McIver Democratic | New Jersey's 10th District | $2,473,124 | +$336,186 | $908,149 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Nick Langworthy Republican | New York's 23rd District | $2,622,573 | +$296,168 | $2,563,742 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Jena Nelson Democratic | Oklahoma's 5th District | $738,967 | +$289,546 | $83,607 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| John Vincent Democratic | South Carolina's 7th District | $572,998 | +$275,734 | $116,138 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Dan Meuser Republican | Pennsylvania's 9th District | $2,122,719 | +$219,641 | $136,904 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Ned Pillersdorf Democratic | Kentucky's 5th District | $367,878 | +$185,597 | $142,631 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Mary Allen Democratic | Indiana's 8th District | $466,933 | +$172,431 | $182,816 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Rick Brattin Republican | Missouri's 5th District | $457,457 | +$125,693 | $17,503 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Drew Williams Democratic | Kentucky's 1st District | $210,630 | +$91,875 | $42,332 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Warren Davidson Republican | Ohio's 8th District | $751,313 | +$89,960 | $432,128 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
Show 23 more
| Candidate | Race | Raised | New | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Vukasovich Democratic | Michigan's 5th District | $141,622 | +$85,866 | $36,034 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| James Pericola Democratic | Florida's 11th District | $197,289 | +$77,535 | $21,881 | Sep 30 (was Jul 29) |
| Mike Collins Republican | U.S. Senate in Georgia | $7,471,304 | +$61,955 | $2,059,087 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| John Nagel Republican | Minnesota's 5th District | $793,750 | +$46,704 | $26,074 | Jul 22 |
| John E. Sununu Republican | U.S. Senate in New Hampshire | $4,214,010 | +$33,758 | $3,103,670 | Sep 30 (was Aug 19) |
| Mark Nair Democratic | Texas's 13th District | $132,056 | +$29,813 | $14,518 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| LaShonda Holloway Democratic | Florida's 4th District | $53,761 | +$26,413 | $42,603 | Sep 30 (was Jul 29) |
| Arthur Purves Republican | Virginia's 11th District | $30,845 | +$20,065 | $17,018 | Sep 30 (was Aug 27) |
| Berney Flowers Republican | Maryland's 3rd District | $31,030 | +$18,322 | $5,983 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Chaz Molder Democratic | Tennessee's 5th District | $2,614,732 | +$14,957 | $1,497,154 | Jul 17 |
| Ritesh Tandon Republican | California's 17th District | $52,460 | +$14,807 | $702 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Joe Tache Party for Socialism and Liberation | U.S. Senate in Massachusetts | $279,507 | +$9,629 | $53,800 | Sep 30 |
| Peter Coe Verbica Republican | California's 19th District | $85,266 | +$8,942 | $7,435 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Scott Singer Republican | Florida's 25th District | $2,274,403 | +$8,701 | $475,202 | Sep 30 (was Jul 29) |
| Casey Askar Republican | Florida's 22nd District | $2,595,020 | +$7,518 | $1,057,379 | Sep 30 (was Jul 29) |
| Mike Cargile Republican | California's 35th District | $9,699 | +$4,940 | $598 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Thomas Smith Republican | Michigan's 8th District | $245,744 | +$2,506 | $183,305 | Sep 30 (was Aug 24) |
| Mike Bouchard Jr. Republican | Michigan's 10th District | $1,626,251 | +$2,506 | $1,105,337 | Sep 30 (was Aug 19) |
| Michael Eisenhauer Independent | Montana's 2nd District | $296,774 | +$521 | $135,097 | Jun 30 |
| Elizabeth Kirtley Democratic | Ohio's 6th District | $1,232 | +$100 | $1,169 | Jun 30 |
| Bob Harvie Democratic | Pennsylvania's 1st District | $2,007,556 | +$57 | $794,921 | Jun 30 |
| Barry Moore Republican | U.S. Senate in Alabama | $3,787,324 | −$6 | $627,389 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| John Braun Republican | Washington's 3rd District | $2,214,441 | +$0 | $1,225,982 | Sep 30 (was Aug 18) |
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes nightly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Oct 13.