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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

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Arizona › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Arizona Governor

Hobbs is very likely to win: Hobbs wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.

Hobbs (D)
95%
chance of winning
Biggs (R)
5%
Average margin
D+10.4
80% of outcomes
D+3 to D+18
Partisan lean
R+4
Polls
23in our database

Hobbs is clearly favored to win: Hobbs wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.

Hobbs (D)
92%
chance of winning
Biggs (R)
8%
Average margin
D+9.3
80% of outcomes
D+1 to D+18
Partisan lean
R+4
Polls
23in our database

Range of outcomes

D+10.4R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30
D+9.3R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Hobbs 95%Biggs 5%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Hobbs 92%Biggs 8%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Arizona state offices
+0.5Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
Environment here
D+10.0Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodD+5.8Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+13.6Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Arizona and look-alikeplacesD+14.3Polling average21 polls, latest Oct 8D+9.8Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+10.3Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+9.3

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge0
First-term incumbent1
Seat's last result vs. expectation8.06
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation8.06

Polls

R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20Avg. D+9.8Aug 18Nov 3
All 23 polls
PollsterDatesSampleHobbsBiggsMarginAdjusted
GrayHouse for the campaign of Elijah Norton, the Republican candidate running for state treasurerR-sponsoredOct 6–Oct 8550 LV5044D+6D+14.0
HighGround, Inc.Oct 6–Oct 8400 LV5134D+17D+15.5
WickR-sponsoredOct 3–Oct 61,513 LV4943D+6D+9.8
GQR for Hobbs' campaignD-sponsoredSep 30–Oct 5600 LV4945D+4R+0.9
Equis ResearchSep 1–Sep 91,214 RV4943D+6D+8.7
Arizona State UniversityAug 18–Sep 41,300 RV4734D+13D+15.9
NextGen PollingR-sponsoredAug 17–Aug 191,627 LV3938D+1
Quantus InsightsR-sponsoredAug 14–Aug 17780 LV4943D+6
Kreate Strategies for American Encore, which supports the Republican PartyR-sponsoredAug 13–Aug 16900 LV4540D+5
Stealth AnalyticsAug 11–Aug 13530 LV4338D+5
Noble Predictive InsightsAug 10–Aug 13923 LV4835D+13
Noble Predictive InsightsAug 10–Aug 131,040 RV4632D+14
GrayhouseR-sponsoredAug 9–Aug 11600 LV4945D+4
The Tarrance Group for the Democracy Defense Foundation, a 501(c)(3) organization, led by former Governor Jan BrewerR-sponsoredJul 27–Jul 30600 LV5248D+4
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPJul 26–Jul 28913 LV5244D+8
Noble Predictive InsightsMay 5–May 7996 RV4137D+4
TIPP Insights for League of American WorkersR-sponsoredApr 20–Apr 241,159 LV4838D+10
TIPP Insights for League of American WorkersR-sponsoredApr 20–Apr 241,501 RV4535D+10
Noble Predictive InsightsFeb 23–Feb 261,023 RV4235D+7
Center for Excellence in PollingJan 22–Jan 24519 LV5041D+9
NextGen PollingR-sponsoredDec 15–Dec 172,725 LV5132D+19
Emerson CollegeNov 8–Nov 10850 RV4443D+1
Noble Predictive InsightsAug 11–Aug 18948 RV3937D+2

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 8, 2026.

The state

Lean R+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+3.8R+6.0 vs. nation2020 presidentD+0.3R+4.2 vs. nation2024 presidentR+5.6R+4.1 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
7,378,838
Adults with a B.A.+
33%
White, no degree
36%of adults
  • White 53%
  • Hispanic 31%
  • Black 4%
  • Asian 4%
  • Other / multiracial 8%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

3,353,102 two-party votes · R+5.6 · R+4.1 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)52.8%
Kamala Harris (D)47.2%

2022

2,570,916 votes · D+0.7
✓ Katie Hobbs (D)50.1%
Kari Lake (R)49.4%

2020 President Vote in this state

3,333,829 two-party votes · D+0.3 · R+4.2 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)50.2%
Donald Trump (R)49.8%

2018

2,379,369 votes · R+14.5
✓ Doug Ducey (R)55.9%
David Garcia (D)41.8%
Angel Torres (OTH)2.1%

2016 President Vote in this state

2,413,568 two-party votes · R+3.8 · R+6.0 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)51.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.1%

2014

1,431,983 votes · R+12.4
✓ Doug Ducey (R)56.2%
Fred Duval (D)43.8%

2010

1,672,869 votes · R+12.3
✓ Jan Brewer (R)56.1%
Terry Goddard (D)43.9%

2006

1,503,358 votes · D+27.7
✓ Janet Napolitano (D)63.8%
Len Munsil (R)36.2%

2002

1,226,111 votes · D+1.1
✓ Janet Napolitano (D)46.2%
Matt Salmon (R)45.2%
Richard D. Mahoney (I)6.9%
Barry Hess (L)1.7%