99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Nevada › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Nevada Governor

Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (42% chance it changes parties).

A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.

Ford (D)
42%
chance of winning
Lombardo (R)
58%
Average margin
R+1.3
80% of outcomes
R+10 to D+8
Partisan lean
R+2
Polls
13in our database

Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (55% chance it changes parties).

A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.

Ford (D)
55%
chance of winning
Lombardo (R)
45%
Average margin
D+1.1
80% of outcomes
R+9 to D+11
Partisan lean
R+2
Polls
13in our database

Range of outcomes

R+1.3R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
D+1.1R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Ford 42%Lombardo 58%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Ford 55%Lombardo 45%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Nevada state offices
−0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
Environment here
D+9.4Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodD+7.4Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+4.5Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Nevada and look-alikeplacesR+4.3Polling average12 polls, latest Sep 26R+0.9Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+1.3Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+1.1

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)-1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge0
First-term incumbent-1
Seat's last result vs. expectation2.64
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation2.64

Polls

R+10R+5EvenD+5D+10Avg. R+0.9Oct 13Nov 3
All 13 polls
PollsterDatesSampleFordLombardoMarginAdjusted
Noble Predictive InsightsSep 22–Sep 26800 RV3738R+1R+2.9
Noble Predictive InsightsSep 22–Sep 26708 LV4042R+2R+2.9
Emerson CollegeSep 5–Sep 8680 LV4442D+2D+4.6
Tarrance Group for Better Nevada PAC and the Republican Governors Association, both of which support LombardoR-sponsoredJul 25–Jul 29— LV4350R+7R+0.2
Public Policy Polling for the Democratic Governors AssociationD-sponsoredJul 15–Jul 16558 LV4444EvenR+2.3
Wedgewood PollsD-sponsoredJul 9–Jul 12700 LV4750R+3R+2.0
Grassroots Targeting for Better Nevada PAC and the Republican Governors Association, both of which support LombardoR-sponsoredJul 8–Jul 6— LV4052R+12
Public Opinion Strategies for the Republican Governors Association, which supports LombardoR-sponsoredJun 27–Jun 29— LV4251R+9D+1.0
Global Strategy GroupD-sponsoredMay 5–May 11700 LV4245R+3
Noble Predictive InsightsMar 10–Mar 13845 RV3839R+1
Hart Research for The Majority Institute, a Democrat-aligned firmD-sponsoredFeb 11–Feb 17800 LV4346R+3
Emerson CollegeNov 16–Nov 18800 RV4141Even
Noble Predictive InsightsOct 7–Oct 13766 RV3740R+3

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 26, 2026.

The state

Lean R+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentD+2.6D+0.4 vs. nation2020 presidentD+2.4R+2.1 vs. nation2024 presidentR+3.2R+1.7 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
3,184,612
Adults with a B.A.+
28%
White, no degree
34%of adults
  • White 45%
  • Hispanic 30%
  • Black 9%
  • Asian 9%
  • Other / multiracial 8%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

1,456,402 two-party votes · R+3.2 · R+1.7 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)51.6%
Kamala Harris (D)48.4%

2022

1,003,842 votes · R+1.6
✓ Joe Lombardo (R)49.5%
Steve Sisolak (D)48.0%
Brandon Davis (L)1.5%
Ed Bridges (OTH)1.0%

2020 President Vote in this state

1,373,376 two-party votes · D+2.4 · R+2.1 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)51.2%
Donald Trump (R)48.8%

2018

952,934 votes · D+4.3
✓ Steve Sisolak (D)50.4%
Adam Paul Laxalt (R)46.2%
Ryan Bundy (NPA)1.5%
Russell Best (OTH)1.1%
Jared Lord (L)0.9%

2016 President Vote in this state

1,051,318 two-party votes · D+2.6 · D+0.4 vs. the nation
✓ Hillary Clinton (D)51.3%
Donald Trump (R)48.7%

2014

531,598 votes · R+49.4
✓ Brian Sandoval (R)72.7%
Bob Goodman (D)24.6%
David Lory VanDerBeek (I)2.7%

2010

704,298 votes · R+12.4
✓ Brian Sandoval (R)54.3%
Rory Reid (D)42.3%
Eugene DiSimone (I)0.9%
Floyd Fitzgibbons (I)0.7%
Arthur Forest Lampitt, Jr. (L)0.7%

2006

561,459 votes · R+4.4
✓ Jim Gibbons (R)49.7%
Dina Titus (D)45.5%
Christopher H. Hansen (I)3.6%
Craig Bergland (G)1.2%

2002

480,405 votes · R+51.2
✓ Kenny Guinn (R)71.6%
Joe Neal (D)23.1%
Dick Geyer (L)1.7%
David G. Holmgren (I)1.5%
Jerry L. Norton (I)1.2%