Forecast updates · Forecast as of Oct 24

Saturday, October 24, 2026

Calls changed
7
Party changes
5
New polls
44
New FEC totals
191
Compared with
Oct 23

Top line

The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Oct 23. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.

Senate

Chance of a Senate majority

D 73%▼ R +1

D50%RSep 1Oct 24

Expected seats 52.0 D · 48.0 R (−0.1 D since Oct 23)

D 73%, 73% Democratic.

D 69%▼ R +1

D50%RSep 1Oct 24

Expected seats 51.8 D · 48.2 R (−0.1 D since Oct 23)

D 69%, 69% Democratic.

House

Chance of a House majority

D 97%no change

D50%RSep 1Oct 24

Expected seats 237.7 D · 197.3 R (−0.3 D since Oct 23)

D 97%, 97% Democratic.

D 94%no change

D50%RSep 1Oct 24

Expected seats 238.6 D · 196.4 R (0 D since Oct 23)

D 94%, 94% Democratic.

Governors

Chance of a majority of governorships

D 71%▼ R +1

D50%RSep 1Oct 24

Expected seats 26.9 D · 23.1 R (0 D since Oct 23)

D 71%, 71% Democratic.

D 77%no change

D50%RSep 1Oct 24

Expected seats 27.5 D · 22.5 R (0 D since Oct 23)

D 77%, 77% Democratic.

Generic ballot (likely voters)

D+8.9no change

Forecast environment

D+9.1no change

Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.

Major changes

Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).

Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Oct 23 → now.

Senate races

  1. U.S. Senate in NebraskaToss-up → Lean R

Every call change

7 races changed rating or favored party since Oct 23 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.

Senate 1 change

  1. U.S. Senate in NebraskaToss-up → Lean R

House 3 changes

  1. VA-1Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
  2. TX-35Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
  3. WA-3Lean D → Toss-up

State legislatures 3 changes in 3 chambers

Nebraska Legislature · 1 change
  1. LD-4Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
North Carolina House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-37Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Utah House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-59Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up

New polls

44 polls new since Oct 23, in 33 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.

New polls
RacePollsterDatesSampleResultMarginSource
U.S. Senate in IowaInsiderAdvantageOct 21–Oct 221,200 LVD 45 · R 47R+2insideradvantage.com ↗
U.S. Senate in IdahoVoteNexus for Knock Every Door PAC, Todd Achilles's campaignOct 21–Oct 22700 LVD 43 · R 49R+6drive.google.com ↗
U.S. Senate in IdahoPeak Insights for James Risch's campaignR sponsorOct 13–Oct 15500 LVD 27 · R 54R+27senatorrisch.com ↗
U.S. Senate in KansasInsiderAdvantageOct 9–Oct 101,200 LVD 47.5 · R 46.7D+1insideradvantage.com ↗
U.S. Senate in KansasYouGovSep 24–Oct 42,253 LVD 48 · R 45D+3d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗
U.S. Senate in KansasTrafalgar GroupR sponsorSep 29–Oct 11,095 LVD 44.4 · R 43.5D+1thetrafalgargroup.org ↗
U.S. Senate in MichiganInsiderAdvantageOct 21–Oct 221,200 LVD 47 · R 46D+1insideradvantage.com ↗
U.S. Senate in MississippiChange Research for Government that Works PACD sponsorOct 21–Oct 22842 LVD 40 · R 43R+3politico.com ↗
U.S. Senate in NebraskaGBAO for Working Class Majority PACOct 18–Oct 22800 LVD 46 · R 45D+1docsend.com ↗
U.S. Senate in NebraskaImpact Research for Dan Osborn's campaignD sponsorOct 14–Oct 20600 LVD 48 · R 50R+2the-downballot.com ↗
U.S. Senate in NebraskaImpact Research for Dan Osborn's campaignD sponsorOct 14–Oct 20600 LVD 47 · R 49R+2the-downballot.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Ohio (special)InsiderAdvantageOct 21–Oct 221,200 LVD 47 · R 44D+3insideradvantage.com ↗
Show 32 more
New polls (continued)
RacePollsterDatesSampleResultMarginSource
U.S. Senate in South CarolinaImpact Research for Fresh Start SC PACD sponsorOct 15–Oct 21800 LVD 45 · R 44D+1freshstartpac.org ↗
U.S. Senate in South DakotaEmerson College for KELO-TVOct 19–Oct 21803 LVD 46 · R 54R+8keloland.com ↗
U.S. Senate in TexasVerasight for VoteHubOct 1–Oct 20601 LVD 47.6 · R 45.2D+2cdn.votehub.com ↗
U.S. Senate in TexasVerasight for VoteHubOct 1–Oct 20601 RVD 46.1 · R 45.3D+1cdn.votehub.com ↗
U.S. Senate in TexasSlingshot Strategies for Texas Public Opinion ResearchOct 15–Oct 18969 LVD 51 · R 47D+4texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com ↗
U.S. Senate in TexasInsiderAdvantageOct 13–Oct 141,200 LVD 48.1 · R 48.5Eveninsideradvantage.com ↗
Arizona GovernorGrayHouse for Friends of Elijah NortonR sponsorOct 18–Oct 20550 LVD 51 · R 45D+6x.com ↗
Idaho GovernorVoteNexus for Knock Every Door PAC, Todd Achilles's campaignOct 21–Oct 22700 LVD 30 · R 49R+19drive.google.com ↗
Kansas GovernorGlobal Strategy Group for Cindy Holscher's campaignD sponsorOct 18–Oct 21600 LVD 47 · R 47Evenglobalstrategygroup.app.box.com ↗
Nebraska GovernorGlobal Strategy Group for Lynne Walz's campaignD sponsorOct 13–Oct 18800 LVD 39 · R 40R+1drive.google.com ↗
New York GovernorActiVoteOct 1–Oct 23400 LVD 59 · R 41D+18activote.net ↗
South Dakota GovernorEmerson College for KELO-TVOct 19–Oct 21803 LVD 40.5 · R 59.5R+19keloland.com ↗
Texas GovernorVerasight for VoteHubOct 1–Oct 20601 LVD 46.4 · R 47.7R+1cdn.votehub.com ↗
Texas GovernorVerasight for VoteHubOct 1–Oct 20601 RVD 44.9 · R 47.6R+3cdn.votehub.com ↗
Texas GovernorSlingshot Strategies for Texas Public Opinion ResearchOct 15–Oct 18969 LVD 48 · R 51R+3texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com ↗
Texas Lieutenant GovernorTexas Public Opinion ResearchOct 15–Oct 18969 LVD 47 · R 50R+3texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com ↗
Arizona Attorney GeneralGrayHouse for Elijah Norton's campaignR sponsorOct 18–Oct 20550 LVD 50 · R 47D+3data.ddhq.io ↗
Texas Attorney GeneralTexas Public Opinion ResearchOct 15–Oct 18969 LVD 48 · R 50R+2texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com ↗
Indiana Secretary of StateQuantus InsightsR sponsorOct 19–Oct 21757 LVD 41.6 · R 38.6D+3quantusinsights.org ↗
Arizona TreasurerGrayHouse for Norton's campaignR sponsorOct 18–Oct 20550 LVD 46 · R 50R+4data.ddhq.io ↗
California's 48th DistrictTarrance Group for Jim Desmond's campaignR sponsorOct 17–Oct 20410 LVD 47 · R 44D+3cdn.sanity.io ↗
Colorado's 3rd DistrictDCCC Targeting TeamD sponsorOct 20–Oct 21402 LVD 47 · R 46D+1cpr.org ↗
Colorado's 5th DistrictPublic Policy Polling for House Majority PACD sponsorOct 19–Oct 20577 LVD 47 · R 47Evenx.com ↗
Idaho's 1st DistrictVoteNexus for Knock Every Door PAC, Todd Achilles's campaignOct 21–Oct 22— LVD 26 · R 52R+26drive.google.com ↗
Idaho's 2nd DistrictVoteNexus for Knock Every Door PAC, Todd Achilles's campaignOct 21–Oct 22— LVD 31 · R 46R+15drive.google.com ↗
Kansas's 2nd DistrictDCCC Targeting TeamD sponsorOct 19–Oct 20639 LVD 46 · R 49R+3semafor.com ↗
South Carolina's 1st DistrictPublic Policy Polling for House Majority PACD sponsorOct 21–Oct 22770 LVD 47 · R 45D+2x.com ↗
Texas's 34th DistrictThe Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and GovernmentOct 14–Oct 19626 LVD 50 · R 43D+7washingtonpost.com ↗
Texas's 35th DistrictThe Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and GovernmentOct 14–Oct 19605 LVD 47 · R 48R+1washingtonpost.com ↗
Virginia's 1st DistrictPublic Policy Polling for House Majority PACD sponsorOct 21–Oct 22570 LVD 47 · R 46D+1x.com ↗
Washington's 3rd DistrictChange Research for Northwest Progressive InstituteD sponsorOct 19–Oct 21551 LVD 45 · R 44D+1nwprogressive.org ↗
Generic congressional ballotSSRS for National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra UniversitySep 18–Sep 251,273 RVD 44 · R 37D+7politico.com ↗

Fundraising

191 federal nominees or incumbents with new FEC totals since Oct 23. Two-year totals (2025–26) of their authorized committees.

New fundraising totals
CandidateRaceRaisedNewCash on handThrough
James Talarico DemocraticU.S. Senate in Texas$146,349,912+$17,577,077$9,922,857Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Abdul El-Sayed DemocraticU.S. Senate in Michigan$53,830,872+$8,655,305$2,734,029Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Adam Hamilton DemocraticU.S. Senate in Kansas$19,175,044+$5,641,333$2,874,364Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Eric Jones DemocraticCalifornia's 4th District$18,058,057+$4,801,793$1,541,079Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Mary Peltola DemocraticU.S. Senate in Alaska$36,887,509+$4,263,787$4,102,126Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Josh Turek DemocraticU.S. Senate in Iowa$24,290,521+$4,137,639$3,072,851Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Annie Andrews DemocraticU.S. Senate in South Carolina$24,216,841+$4,043,144$1,709,466Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Angie Nixon DemocraticU.S. Senate in Florida (special)$11,319,380+$3,141,436$3,266,795Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Ken Paxton RepublicanU.S. Senate in Texas$22,327,474+$2,829,664$4,784,408Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Doris Matsui DemocraticCalifornia's 7th District$7,837,819+$2,588,914$1,995,780Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Ilhan Omar DemocraticMinnesota's 5th District$8,247,982+$1,875,643$3,003,684Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Dan Osborn IndependentU.S. Senate in Nebraska$11,029,845+$1,223,985$1,953,183Oct 14
Show 88 more
New fundraising totals (continued)
CandidateRaceRaisedNewCash on handThrough
Cait Conley DemocraticNew York's 17th District$10,706,692+$1,041,231$948,540Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Jamie Davis DemocraticU.S. Senate in Louisiana$5,019,888+$1,004,358$1,254,929Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Manny Rutinel DemocraticColorado's 8th District$9,459,070+$880,816$1,002,642Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Rebecca Cooke DemocraticWisconsin's 3rd District$12,675,997+$716,351$447,387Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Pia Dandiya DemocraticFlorida's 22nd District$4,619,822+$688,910$735,105Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Brandon Gill RepublicanTexas's 26th District$7,939,470+$645,579$2,092,335Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Amish Shah DemocraticArizona's 1st District$5,654,454+$622,849$206,045Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Jared Moskowitz DemocraticFlorida's 25th District$5,710,776+$616,942$1,210,073Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Bobby Pulido DemocraticTexas's 15th District$6,819,247+$605,878$1,269,454Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
William Lawrence DemocraticMichigan's 7th District$4,160,041+$494,520$628,966Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
JoAnna Mendoza DemocraticArizona's 6th District$11,242,473+$481,742$807,899Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Randy Villegas DemocraticCalifornia's 22nd District$5,942,030+$477,008$962,352Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Blake Gendebien DemocraticNew York's 21st District$7,655,529+$471,116$364,012Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Marni von Wilpert DemocraticCalifornia's 48th District$4,966,576+$448,199$659,136Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Tom Suozzi DemocraticNew York's 3rd District$7,599,603+$441,895$3,234,342Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Nancy Lacore DemocraticSouth Carolina's 1st District$4,865,630+$436,335$175,304Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Hakeem Jeffries DemocraticNew York's 8th District$17,893,352+$366,952$4,234,848Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Jay Feely RepublicanArizona's 1st District$3,799,654+$366,769$182,764Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Martin O'Donnell RepublicanNevada's 3rd District$4,835,730+$359,431$184,549Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Zach Dembo DemocraticKentucky's 6th District$3,205,462+$334,221$620,330Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Mark Warner DemocraticU.S. Senate in Virginia$20,222,105+$318,451$6,217,677Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Derrick Van Orden RepublicanWisconsin's 3rd District$9,101,596+$306,621$1,165,671Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Beth Macy DemocraticVirginia's 6th District$2,926,193+$291,551$362,878Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Tom Perriello DemocraticVirginia's 5th District$3,762,301+$289,527$684,166Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Johnny Garcia DemocraticTexas's 35th District$2,201,579+$284,475$149,503Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Bill Hill IndependentAlaska's at-large District$2,630,793+$281,977$117,732Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Mike LiPetri RepublicanNew York's 3rd District$2,584,014+$268,312$456,873Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
David Valadao RepublicanCalifornia's 22nd District$6,325,324+$266,771$1,711,651Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Teresa Benitez-Thompson DemocraticNevada's 2nd District$1,054,467+$263,990$181,849Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Thomas Kean Jr. RepublicanNew Jersey's 7th District$6,128,373+$260,954$1,365,406Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Mike Thompson DemocraticCalifornia's 4th District$5,482,944+$259,674$1,401,440Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Gabe Vasquez DemocraticNew Mexico's 2nd District$5,518,618+$258,867$496,982Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Scott Wiener DemocraticCalifornia's 11th District$5,808,855+$236,199$611,039Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Don Davis DemocraticNorth Carolina's 1st District$5,805,482+$232,904$825,818Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Stefany Shaheen DemocraticNew Hampshire's 1st District$3,247,792+$232,597$270,732Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Eliott Rodriguez DemocraticFlorida's 27th District$1,567,393+$227,409$621,791Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Fred Wellman DemocraticMissouri's 2nd District$2,178,965+$225,290$240,718Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Jamee Decio DemocraticIndiana's 2nd District$1,455,232+$212,721$454,600Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Todd Achilles IndependentU.S. Senate in Idaho$1,921,132+$200,249$195,819Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Adam Gray DemocraticCalifornia's 13th District$5,241,028+$186,852$848,633Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Brian Bengs IndependentU.S. Senate in South Dakota$1,855,763+$177,431$69,708Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Sharice Davids DemocraticKansas's 3rd District$4,656,759+$176,562$1,860,026Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Connie Chan DemocraticCalifornia's 11th District$2,404,664+$174,670$581,805Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Young Kim RepublicanCalifornia's 40th District$10,148,196+$170,683$910,973Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Eric Conroy RepublicanOhio's 1st District$2,372,637+$164,360$293,397Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Dwayne Romero DemocraticColorado's 3rd District$1,701,091+$161,257$196,124Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Mario Díaz-Balart RepublicanFlorida's 26th District$2,763,196+$156,509$1,676,213Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Zach Nunn RepublicanIowa's 3rd District$6,123,740+$154,788$620,759Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Darden Copeland DemocraticTennessee's 7th District$1,257,202+$151,503$73,686Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Chaz Molder DemocraticTennessee's 5th District$3,531,778+$151,433$560,495Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Jeff Hurd RepublicanColorado's 3rd District$4,168,636+$150,643$237,768Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
J. D. Ford DemocraticIndiana's 5th District$1,410,737+$144,376$324,529Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Josh Riley DemocraticNew York's 19th District$5,986,869+$142,457$1,791,679Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Derek Tran DemocraticCalifornia's 45th District$5,988,192+$142,009$2,682,392Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Katy Padilla Stout DemocraticTexas's 23rd District$1,117,715+$141,011$144,424Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Fred Clark DemocraticWisconsin's 7th District$863,780+$138,418$260,844Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Brent Taylor RepublicanTennessee's 9th District$2,832,273+$138,094$524,251Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
James Gallagher RepublicanCalifornia's 1st District$1,995,260+$135,328$327,729Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Derek Merrin RepublicanOhio's 9th District$2,217,821+$133,890$449,466Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Richard Ojeda DemocraticNorth Carolina's 9th District$2,930,069+$120,232$45,572Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Carmela Conroy DemocraticWashington's 5th District$840,423+$117,380$90,193Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Greg Landsman DemocraticOhio's 1st District$5,662,206+$116,116$502,952Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Jim Risch RepublicanU.S. Senate in Idaho$3,935,512+$111,661$2,122,235Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Tim Burchett RepublicanTennessee's 2nd District$3,131,315+$109,816$914,111Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Guy Reschenthaler RepublicanPennsylvania's 14th District$5,037,695+$105,022$713,105Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Analilia Mejia DemocraticNew Jersey's 11th District$2,229,339+$100,494$115,467Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
John Mannion DemocraticNew York's 22nd District$3,240,826+$99,858$1,016,372Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Darline Graham RepublicanU.S. Senate in South Carolina$1,917,646+$90,020$634,430Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Lauren Reinhold DemocraticKansas's 1st District$136,351+$88,090$32,985Oct 14 (was Jul 15)
Emanuel Cleaver DemocraticMissouri's 5th District$1,766,864+$85,339$882,948Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Tano Tijerina RepublicanTexas's 28th District$1,862,407+$83,609$113,050Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Robert Garcia DemocraticCalifornia's 42nd District$3,394,175+$76,330$1,572,980Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Brad Lander DemocraticNew York's 10th District$2,785,967+$74,172$80,536Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Tim Kennedy DemocraticNew York's 26th District$2,761,025+$73,630$1,208,991Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Jacqui Irwin DemocraticCalifornia's 26th District$1,170,990+$72,990$457,811Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
George Whitesides DemocraticCalifornia's 27th District$4,512,697+$72,910$2,173,658Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
John Duresky DemocraticWashington's 4th District$459,020+$70,731$83,691Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Andrew Garbarino RepublicanNew York's 2nd District$4,057,667+$69,835$2,686,930Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Mike Rogers RepublicanAlabama's 3rd District$2,521,576+$69,752$2,707,644Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Rachel Wallace DemocraticPennsylvania's 9th District$1,145,383+$69,068$250,759Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Michaela Barnett DemocraticTennessee's 2nd District$717,842+$68,095$130,251Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Mark Tedford RepublicanOklahoma's 1st District$2,490,274+$67,295$157,345Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Raul Ruiz DemocraticCalifornia's 25th District$2,455,631+$66,377$2,466,905Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Ted Lieu DemocraticCalifornia's 36th District$2,218,448+$64,200$1,181,424Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Leticia Gutierrez DemocraticTexas's 9th District$215,053+$63,050$110,892Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Derek Schmidt RepublicanKansas's 2nd District$1,772,989+$61,552$457,586Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Melissa Hernandez DemocraticCalifornia's 14th District$2,112,674+$59,279$108,358Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Brad Sherman DemocraticCalifornia's 32nd District$2,899,860+$58,435$2,673,243Oct 14 (was Sep 30)

Showing 100 of 191, largest new amounts first.

State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.

Candidates

No race changed its modeled candidates since Oct 23.