DemocraticIncumbent
Mark Warner
Incumbent U.S. senator (2009–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $19.9M
- From individuals
- $10.2M
- Spent
- $17.9M
- Cash on hand
- $7.5M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Virginia › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
U.S. Senate in Virginia
Warner is very likely to win: Warner wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Warner (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Mizusawa (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+22.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+13 to D+32
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- 2in our database
Warner is very likely to win: Warner wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Warner (D)
99%
chance of winning
Mizusawa (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+19.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+10 to D+30
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- 2in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Bert Mizusawa
Retired United States Army major general, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018, and candidate for VA-02 in 2010
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $1M
- From individuals
- $796.8K
- Spent
- $805.4K
- Cash on hand
- $229.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.35 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 6.49 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 6.49 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Warner | Mizusawa | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Public Sentiment Institute | Jun 12–Jun 16 | 996 LV | 51 | 33 | D+18 | D+21.8 |
| The Public Sentiment Institute/Virginia ProjectR-sponsored | May 1–May 5 | 1,047 LV | 55 | 29 | D+26 | D+36.4 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Jun 16, 2026.
The state
Lean D+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 8,705,170
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 42%
- White, no degree
- 34%of adults
- White 58%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 18%
- Asian 7%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
4,407,875 two-party votes · D+5.9 · D+7.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.9%
Donald Trump (R)47.1%
2020
4,406,114 votes · D+12.1✓ Mark R. Warner (D)56.0%
Daniel M. Gade (R)43.9%
2020 President Vote in this state
4,375,998 two-party votes · D+10.3 · D+5.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.2%
Donald Trump (R)44.8%
2016 President Vote in this state
3,750,916 two-party votes · D+5.7 · D+3.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)52.8%
Donald Trump (R)47.2%
2014
2,182,709 votes · D+0.8✓ Mark R. Warner (D)49.2%
Ed. W. Gillespie (R)48.4%
Robert C. Sarvis (L)2.4%
2008
3,640,116 votes · D+31.7✓ Mark R. Warner (D)65.1%
James S. "jim" Gilmore III (R)33.8%
Glenda Gail Parker (I)0.6%
William B. Redpath (L)0.6%
2002
1,481,051 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ John W. Warner (R)83.0%
Nancy B. Spannaus (I)9.8%
Jacob G. Hornberger Jr. (I)7.2%