Democratic
Terri Pickens
Attorney and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2022
- Experience
- No elected office
Idaho › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Idaho Governor
Little is very likely to win: Little wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Pickens (D)
1%
chance of winning
Little (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+23.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+34 to R+14
- Partisan lean
- R+36
- Polls
- 4in our database
Little is very likely to win: Little wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Pickens (D)
1%
chance of winning
Little (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+24.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+35 to R+13
- Partisan lean
- R+36
- Polls
- 4in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Brad Little
Incumbent governor (2019–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
Independent
John Stegner
Former justice of the Idaho Supreme Court (2018–2023)
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Idaho state offices
- −0.2Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.3Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -10.1 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -10.1 |
Polls
All 4 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Pickens | Little | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advanced Targeting Research | Sep 13–Sep 16 | 700 RV | 27 | 37 | R+10 | R+21.2 |
| Change Research for John Stegner's campaign | Jul 28–Jul 30 | 1,213 LV | 27 | 48 | R+21 | R+28.7 |
| Change Research for John Stegner's campaign | Jul 28–Jul 30 | 1,213 LV | 33 | 54 | R+21 | R+28.7 |
| Change Research for John Stegner's campaign | Jul 28–Jul 30 | 1,213 LV | — | 47 | — | R+28.7 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 16, 2026.
The state
Lean R+36: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 1,934,262
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 54%of adults
- White 79%
- Hispanic 14%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
880,218 two-party votes · R+37.5 · R+36.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.8%
Kamala Harris (D)31.2%
2022
1,181,304 votes · R+49.7✓ Brad Little (R)60.5%
Stephen Heidt (D)20.3%
Ammon Bundy (OTH)17.2%
Paul Sand (L)1.1%
Chantyrose Davison (OTH)0.9%
2020 President Vote in this state
841,140 two-party votes · R+31.8 · R+36.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.9%
Joe Biden (D)34.1%
2018
605,131 votes · R+22.0✓ Brad Little (R)59.8%
Paulette Jordan (D)38.2%
Bev "angel" Boeck (L)1.1%
Walter L Bayes (OTH)1.0%
2016 President Vote in this state
598,820 two-party votes · R+36.6 · R+38.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)31.7%
2014
439,735 votes · R+16.3✓ Butch Otter (R)53.5%
A.J. Balukoff (D)38.6%
John Bujak (L)4.1%
Jill Humble (I)2.0%
Steven Pankey (CST)1.2%
2010
452,535 votes · R+28.5✓ Butch Otter (R)59.1%
Keith G. Allred (D)32.9%
Jana M. Kemp (I)5.9%
Ted Dunlap (L)1.3%
Pro-Life (I)0.9%
2006
436,282 votes · R+8.8✓ C. L. Otter (R)54.4%
Jerry M. Brady (D)45.6%
2002
403,277 votes · R+14.8✓ Dirk Kempthorne (R)57.4%
Jerry M. Brady (D)42.6%