Democratic
Annie Andrews
Pediatrician and nominee for SC-1 in 2022
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $10.8M
- From individuals
- $10.7M
- Spent
- $6.7M
- Cash on hand
- $4.1M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
South Carolina › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
U.S. Senate in South Carolina
Graham is favored to win: Graham wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Andrews (D)
26%
chance of winning
Graham (R)
74%
- Average margin
- R+3.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- 9in our database
Graham is favored to win: Graham wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Andrews (D)
29%
chance of winning
Graham (R)
71%
- Average margin
- R+3.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+12 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- 9in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
RepublicanAppointed incumbent
Darline Graham
Incumbent senator (2026–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $346.8K
- From individuals
- $299.8K
- Spent
- $95.4K
- Cash on hand
- $251.4K
Money: FEC, through Aug 5, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.63 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.05 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 9 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Andrews | Graham | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen ReportsR-sponsored | Oct 5–Oct 8 | 837 LV | 45 | 49 | R+4 | R+3.7 |
| InsiderAdvantageR-sponsored | Sep 28–Sep 29 | 1,200 LV | 45 | 46 | R+1 | R+0.1 |
| Trafalgar GroupR-sponsored | Sep 23–Sep 25 | 1,087 LV | 42 | 43 | R+1 | D+0.3 |
| Rasmussen ReportsR-sponsored | Sep 14–Sep 14 | 1,006 LV | 43 | 48 | R+5 | R+4.5 |
| InsiderAdvantageR-sponsored | Sep 8–Sep 9 | 1,200 LV | 43 | 45 | R+2 | R+0.8 |
| Abacus Data | Aug 26–Aug 28 | 306 LV | 42 | 55 | R+13 | |
| Abacus Data | Aug 26–Aug 28 | 500 RV | 48 | 47 | D+1 | |
| Impact Research for Andrews's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 18–Aug 24 | 700 LV | 41 | 41 | Even | R+4.4 |
| Impact Research for Andrews's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 14–Aug 22 | 900 LV | 42 | 39 | D+3 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 8, 2026.
The state
Lean R+17: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 5,296,225
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 41%of adults
- White 62%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 25%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
2,512,199 two-party votes · R+18.1 · R+16.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.1%
Kamala Harris (D)40.9%
2020
2,515,104 votes · R+10.4✓ Lindsey Graham (R)54.4%
Jaime Harrison (D)44.2%
Bill Bledsoe (CST)1.3%
2020 President Vote in this state
2,476,644 two-party votes · R+11.9 · R+16.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.9%
Joe Biden (D)44.1%
2016 President Vote in this state
2,010,762 two-party votes · R+14.9 · R+17.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.5%
2014
1,235,301 votes · R+16.6✓ Lindsey Graham (R)54.5%
Brad Hutto (D)38.9%
Thomas Ravenel (I)3.9%
Victor Kocher (L)2.7%
2008
1,867,155 votes · R+15.3✓ Lindsey Graham (R)57.7%
Bob Conley (D)42.3%
2002
1,102,245 votes · R+10.4✓ Lindsey O. Graham (R)54.4%
Alex Sanders (D)44.2%
Ted Adams (CST)0.7%
Victor Kocher (L)0.6%