Democratic
Cindy Holscher
State senator from the 8th district (2021–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
Kansas › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kansas Governor
Projected flip: Democratic-held seat, Republicans favored (76%).
Masterson is favored to win: Masterson wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Holscher (D)
24%
chance of winning
Masterson (R)
76%
- Average margin
- R+4.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+12 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- 7in our database
Projected flip: Democratic-held seat, Republicans favored (77%).
Masterson is favored to win: Masterson wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Holscher (D)
23%
chance of winning
Masterson (R)
77%
- Average margin
- R+4.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+14 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- 7in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Ty Masterson
President of the Kansas Senate (2021–present) from the 16th district (2009–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Kansas state offices
- −0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 25.75 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 7 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Holscher | Masterson | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Sep 24–Oct 4 | 2,255 LV | 44 | 47 | R+3 | R+4.7 |
| New York Times/Siena University | Sep 22–Sep 30 | 605 LV | 44 | 49 | R+5 | R+5.0 |
| Wedgewood Polls | Sep 22–Sep 24 | 500 LV | 48 | 52 | R+4 | R+4.2 |
| Emerson College for Nexstar Media Group | Sep 15–Sep 16 | 750 LV | 44 | 51 | R+7 | R+5.4 |
| Global Strategy Group for the Democratic Attorneys General AssociationD-sponsored | Sep 13–Sep 16 | 800 LV | 49 | 46 | D+3 | R+2.5 |
| co/efficientR-sponsored | Sep 8–Sep 10 | 915 LV | 43 | 51 | R+8 | R+4.1 |
| Global Strategy Group for Holscher's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 13–Aug 16 | 600 LV | 47 | 46 | D+1 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 4, 2026.
The state
Lean R+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 2,947,197
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 48%of adults
- White 73%
- Hispanic 14%
- Black 5%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
1,303,655 two-party votes · R+16.4 · R+14.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.2%
Kamala Harris (D)41.8%
2022
1,008,989 votes · D+2.3✓ Laura Kelly (D)49.5%
Derek Schmidt (R)47.3%
Dennis Pyle (OTH)2.0%
Seth Cordell (L)1.1%
2020 President Vote in this state
1,341,729 two-party votes · R+15.0 · R+19.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.5%
Joe Biden (D)42.5%
2018
1,055,026 votes · D+5.6✓ Laura Kelly/lynn Rogers (D)48.0%
Kris Kobach/wink Hartman (R)42.9%
Greg Orman/john Doll (OTH)6.5%
Jeff Caldwell/mary Gerlt (L)1.9%
Rick Kloos/nathaniel Kloos (OTH)0.6%
2016 President Vote in this state
1,098,023 two-party votes · R+22.2 · R+24.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.9%
2014
834,296 votes · R+3.8✓ Sam Brownback (R)51.9%
Paul Davis (D)48.1%
2010
800,926 votes · R+32.5✓ Sam Brownback (R)66.3%
Tom Holland (D)33.7%
2006
835,573 votes · D+17.8✓ Kathleen Sebelius (D)58.9%
Jim Barnett (R)41.1%
2002
818,688 votes · D+7.9✓ Kathleen Sebelius (D)54.0%
Tim Shallenburger (R)46.0%