Kansas › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (46% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (46% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Range of outcomes
Pastor and founder of the Church of the Resurrection (initially formed exploratory committee as an independent)
Money: FEC, through Jul 15, 2026.
Incumbent U.S. senator (2021–present)
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Attorney (Libertarian)
Money: no FEC filings matched.
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.64 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 9.8 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 9.8 |
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Hamilton | Marshall | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantageR-sponsored | Oct 13–Oct 14 | 1,200 LV | 47 | 48 | R+1 | Even |
| InsiderAdvantageR-sponsored | Oct 9–Oct 10 | 1,200 LV | 48 | 47 | D+1 | D+2.1 |
| GBAO for Hamilton's campaignD-sponsored | Sep 30–Oct 4 | 600 LV | 46 | 41 | D+5 | R+0.4 |
| GBAO for Hamilton's campaignD-sponsored | Sep 30–Oct 4 | 600 LV | 49 | 44 | D+5 | R+0.4 |
| YouGov | Sep 24–Oct 4 | 2,255 LV | 48 | 45 | D+3 | D+1.9 |
| Trafalgar GroupR-sponsored | Sep 29–Oct 1 | 1,095 LV | 44 | 44 | Even | |
| New York Times/Siena University | Sep 22–Sep 30 | 605 LV | 45 | 45 | Even | D+0.4 |
| New York Times/Siena University | Sep 22–Sep 30 | 605 LV | 46 | 47 | R+1 | D+0.4 |
| Wedgewood Polls | Sep 22–Sep 24 | 500 LV | 50 | 48 | D+2 | |
| Emerson College for Nexstar Media Group | Sep 15–Sep 16 | 750 LV | 45 | 43 | D+2 | D+4.2 |
| Global Strategy Group for the Democratic Attorneys General AssociationD-sponsored | Sep 13–Sep 16 | 800 LV | 49 | 47 | D+2 | |
| Global Strategy Group for the Democratic Attorneys General AssociationD-sponsored | Sep 13–Sep 16 | 800 LV | 47 | 43 | D+4 | |
| co/efficientR-sponsored | Sep 8–Sep 10 | 915 LV | 44 | 49 | R+5 | |
| Global Strategy Group for People over Politics ActionD-sponsored | Aug 12–Aug 16 | 800 LV | 44 | 43 | D+1 | |
| Public Policy Polling for Senate Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Aug 7–Aug 8 | 569 LV | 45 | 46 | R+1 | |
| GBAO for Hamilton's campaignD-sponsored | Jul 8–Jul 13 | 600 LV | 43 | 47 | R+4 | |
| Tavern ResearchD-sponsored | Jan 26–Jan 28 | 1,013 LV | 46 | 54 | R+8 | |
| Tavern ResearchD-sponsored | Jan 26–Jan 28 | 1,013 LV | 51 | 49 | D+2 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 14, 2026.
Lean R+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.