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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

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Louisiana › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

U.S. Senate in Louisiana

Letlow is very likely to win: Letlow wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.

Davis (D)
5%
chance of winning
Letlow (R)
95%
Average margin
R+11.0
80% of outcomes
R+19 to R+3
Partisan lean
R+22
Polls
2in our database

Letlow is clearly favored to win: Letlow wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.

Davis (D)
6%
chance of winning
Letlow (R)
94%
Average margin
R+10.9
80% of outcomes
R+20 to R+2
Partisan lean
R+22
Polls
2in our database

Range of outcomes

R+11.0R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30
R+10.9R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30

How this race is decided

Closed party primaries for U.S. Senate

Starting in 2026, Senate nominees were chosen in closed party primaries (May 16, runoff June 27). The November Senate race is decided by plurality.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Davis 5%Letlow 95%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Davis 6%Letlow 94%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Democratic

Jamie Davis

Former Tensas Parish police juror and runner-up for Louisiana's 21st House of Representatives district in 2023

Experience
Local office
Raised
$2M
From individuals
$2M
Spent
$1.5M
Cash on hand
$479.1K

Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.

Profile and career

Republican

Julia Letlow

U.S. representative from Louisiana's 5th congressional district (2021–present)

Experience
Statewide office or Congress
Raised
$6.2M
From individuals
$1.4M
Spent
$4.8M
Cash on hand
$1.4M

Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.

Profile and career · Wikipedia

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodR+12.0Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+12.6Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Louisiana andlook-alike placesR+12.4Polling average2 polls, latest Sep 19R+10.1Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+11.0Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayR+10.9

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)-0.45
Elected-experience edge-0.67
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation-30
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

R+10R+5EvenD+5D+10Avg. R+10.1Jul 22Nov 3
All 2 polls
PollsterDatesSampleDavisLetlowMarginAdjusted
Hart Research Associates for Davis' campaignD-sponsoredSep 17–Sep 19500 LV4448R+4R+10.2
Public Policy Polling for Davis' campaignD-sponsoredJul 21–Jul 22518 RV3741R+4R+7.7

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 19, 2026.

The state

Lean R+22: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+20.3R+22.6 vs. nation2020 presidentR+18.9R+23.5 vs. nation2024 presidentR+22.4R+20.9 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
4,611,961
Adults with a B.A.+
27%
White, no degree
41%of adults
  • White 56%
  • Hispanic 7%
  • Black 31%
  • Asian 2%
  • Other / multiracial 5%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

1,975,375 two-party votes · R+22.4 · R+20.9 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)61.2%
Kamala Harris (D)38.8%

2020

2,071,543 votes · R+51.4
✓ Bill Cassi (R)59.3%
Adrian Perkins (D)19.0%
Derrick "champ" Edwards (D)11.1%
Antoine Pierce (D)2.7%
Dustin Murphy (R)1.9%

2020 President Vote in this state

2,111,810 two-party votes · R+18.9 · R+23.5 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)59.5%
Joe Biden (D)40.5%

2016 President Vote in this state

1,958,792 two-party votes · R+20.3 · R+22.6 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)60.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.8%

2014 runoff

1,273,589 votes · R+11.9
✓ Cassidy, Bill (R)55.9%
Landrieu, Mary L. (D)44.1%

2014

3,523,183 votes · R+4.6
✓ Bill Cassidy (R)48.6%
Mary L. Landrieu (D)44.3%
"rob" Maness (R)5.7%

2008

1,896,574 votes · D+6.5
✓ Mary L. Landrieu (D)52.1%
John Kennedy (R)45.7%
Richard Fontanesi (L)1.0%
"jay" Patel (I)0.7%

2002 runoff

1,235,296 votes · D+3.4
✓ Landrieu, Mary (D)51.7%
Terrell, Suzanne Haik (R)48.3%

2002

2,481,629 votes · D+12.8
✓ Mary L. Landrieu (D)48.8%
Suzanne Haik Terrell (R)37.7%
John Cooksey (R)6.9%
"tony" Perkins (R)4.8%
Raymond Brown (D)0.9%