Democratic
Nathan Johnson
State senator from the 16th district (2019–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
Texas › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas Attorney General
Middleton is favored to win: Middleton wins in 3 of every 5 simulations.
Johnson (D)
40%
chance of winning
Middleton (R)
60%
- Average margin
- R+1.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- 13in our database
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (41% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Johnson (D)
41%
chance of winning
Middleton (R)
59%
- Average margin
- R+1.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+8
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- 13in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Mayes Middleton
State senator from the 11th district (2023–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Texas state offices
- +0.5Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+10.0Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.24 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 13 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Johnson | Middleton | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | Sep 25–Oct 5 | 861 LV | 48 | 47 | D+1 | D+1.2 |
| Stratus IntelligenceR-sponsored | Sep 22–Sep 24 | 865 LV | 42 | 47 | R+5 | R+2.8 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | Sep 19–Sep 22 | 1,007 LV | 43 | 46 | R+3 | R+4.8 |
| Texas Southern University | Sep 15–Sep 19 | 1,800 LV | 42 | 47 | R+5 | R+4.1 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | Sep 8–Sep 11 | 614 LV | 44 | 45 | R+1 | R+3.3 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | Aug 21–Aug 24 | 1,000 LV | 41 | 44 | R+3 | R+3.9 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | Aug 5–Aug 13 | 1,200 RV | 35 | 40 | R+5 | |
| Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena University | Jul 27–Jul 30 | 619 LV | 44 | 46 | R+2 | |
| Texas Southern University | Jul 27–Jul 30 | 1,200 LV | 41 | 46 | R+5 | |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | Jul 15–Jul 17 | 1,048 LV | 38 | 39 | R+1 | |
| University of Texas/YouGov | Jun 5–Jun 12 | 1,200 RV | 36 | 41 | R+5 | |
| Texas A&M University/ReconMR | Jun 1–Jun 4 | 807 LV | 40 | 45 | R+5 | |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | May 27–May 28 | 1,670 LV | 39 | 44 | R+5 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 5, 2026.
The state
Lean R+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 30,188,424
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 25%of adults
- White 39%
- Hispanic 40%
- Black 12%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
11,228,847 two-party votes · R+13.9 · R+12.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.9%
Kamala Harris (D)43.1%
2022
8,010,903 votes · R+10.0✓ Paxton (R)53.4%
Garza (D)43.7%
Ash (L)2.9%
2020 President Vote in this state
11,149,473 two-party votes · R+5.7 · R+10.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.8%
Joe Biden (D)47.2%
2018
8,289,113 votes · R+3.6✓ Paxton (R)50.6%
Nelson (D)47.0%
Harris (L)2.4%
2016 President Vote in this state
8,562,915 two-party votes · R+9.4 · R+11.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.3%