Democratic
Lynne Walz
Former state senator from the 15th district (2017–2025) and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2018
- Experience
- State legislature
Nebraska › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nebraska Governor
Pillen is favored to win: Pillen wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Walz (D)
23%
chance of winning
Pillen (R)
77%
- Average margin
- R+4.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- 11in our database
Pillen is favored to win: Pillen wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Walz (D)
24%
chance of winning
Pillen (R)
76%
- Average margin
- R+4.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+14 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- 11in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Jim Pillen
Incumbent governor (2023–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
Legal Marijuana Now
Rick Beard
Private chef, winemaker, and former farmer
- Experience
- No elected office
Other party
Brett Lindstrom
Former state senator from the 18th district (2015–2023), Republican candidate for Nebraska's 2nd congressional district in 2012 and 2026, and Republican candidate for governor in 2022
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Nebraska state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.71 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.71 |
Polls
All 11 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Walz | Pillen | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Public AffairsR-sponsored | Oct 2–Oct 5 | 800 LV | 40 | 44 | R+4 | D+0.1 |
| YouGov | Sep 24–Oct 3 | 1,809 LV | 43 | 44 | R+1 | R+2.5 |
| co/efficientR-sponsored | Sep 28–Sep 30 | 1,113 LV | 38 | 43 | R+5 | R+2.2 |
| Wedgewood Polls | Sep 14–Sep 16 | 500 LV | 36 | 53 | R+17 | R+19.1 |
| Lake Research Partners for Walz's campaignD-sponsored | Sep 8–Sep 14 | — RV | 40 | 40 | Even | R+6.3 |
| SurveyUSA for Grant Forbes, LLC | Sep 8–Sep 13 | 503 LV | 35 | 43 | R+8 | R+11.6 |
| Public Policy Polling for the Democratic Governors AssociationD-sponsored | Sep 1–Sep 2 | 559 RV | 31 | 32 | R+1 | |
| Lake Research Partners for Walz's campaignD-sponsored | Apr 25–Apr 29 | 900 LV | 45 | 47 | R+2 | |
| Public Policy PollingD-sponsored | Apr 6–Apr 7 | 670 RV | 33 | 38 | R+5 | |
| Lake Research Partners for Walz's campaignD-sponsored | Dec 11–Dec 17 | 900 LV | 43 | 48 | R+5 | |
| Lake Research Partners for Walz's campaignD-sponsored | Jul 23–Jul 29 | 900 LV | 39 | 51 | R+12 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 5, 2026.
The state
Lean R+21: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 1,978,707
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 50%of adults
- White 75%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 5%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
934,811 two-party votes · R+20.8 · R+19.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.4%
Kamala Harris (D)39.6%
2022
666,795 votes · R+24.4✓ Jim Pillen (R)59.7%
Carol Blood (D)36.3%
Scott Zimmerman (L)4.0%
2020 President Vote in this state
931,429 two-party votes · R+19.6 · R+24.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.8%
Joe Biden (D)40.2%
2018
697,981 votes · R+18.0✓ Pete Ricketts And Mike Foley (R)59.0%
Bob Krist And Lynne M Walz (D)41.0%
2016 President Vote in this state
780,455 two-party votes · R+27.1 · R+29.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)36.5%
2014
520,656 votes · R+18.6✓ Pete Ricketts (R)59.3%
Chuck Hassebrook (D)40.7%
2010
487,988 votes · R+47.8✓ Dave Heineman (R)73.9%
Mike Meister (D)26.1%
2006
580,622 votes · R+50.0✓ Dave Heineman (R)75.0%
David Hahn (D)25.0%
2002
462,697 votes · R+42.8✓ Mike Johanns (R)71.4%
Stormy Dean (D)28.6%