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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

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What's the difference?

Mississippi › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

U.S. Senate in Mississippi

Hyde-Smith is clearly favored to win: Hyde-Smith wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.

Colom (D)
14%
chance of winning
Hyde-Smith (R)
86%
Average margin
R+7.2
80% of outcomes
R+16 to D+2
Partisan lean
R+22
Polls
5in our database

Hyde-Smith is clearly favored to win: Hyde-Smith wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.

Colom (D)
15%
chance of winning
Hyde-Smith (R)
85%
Average margin
R+7.6
80% of outcomes
R+17 to D+2
Partisan lean
R+22
Polls
5in our database

Range of outcomes

R+7.2R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
R+7.6R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Colom 14%Hyde-Smith 86%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Colom 15%Hyde-Smith 85%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Democratic

Scott Colom

District attorney for the 16th Judicial District of Mississippi (2016–present)

Experience
Local office
Raised
$2.4M
From individuals
$1.9M
Spent
$1.5M
Cash on hand
$847K

Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.

Profile and career · Wikipedia

Independent

Ty Pinkins

Lawyer, Democratic nominee for Secretary of State in 2023 and U.S. Senate in 2024

Experience
No elected office
Raised
$98K
From individuals
$93.7K
Spent
$98.3K
Cash on hand
$5.4K

Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.

Profile and career

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodR+12.1Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+12.6Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Mississippi andlook-alike placesR+12.8Polling average3 polls, latest Oct 14R+4.9Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+7.2Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayR+7.6

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)-1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)-0.38
Elected-experience edge-0.67
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation6
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation6

Polls

R+5EvenD+5Avg. R+4.9Apr 12Nov 3
All 5 polls
PollsterDatesSampleColomHyde-SmithMarginAdjusted
Wedgewood PollsOct 12–Oct 14511 LV4852R+4R+4.4
Data for Progress for Way to Lead PAC, which supports DemocratsD-sponsoredAug 5–Aug 151,018 LV3844R+6R+9.9
Data for Progress for Way to Lead PAC, which supports DemocratsD-sponsoredAug 5–Aug 151,018 LV4147R+6R+9.9
Impact Research for the SPLC Action Fund, which opposes Hyde-SmithD-sponsoredApr 8–Apr 12500 LV3942R+3R+7.5
Impact Research for the SPLC Action Fund, which opposes Hyde-SmithD-sponsoredApr 8–Apr 12500 LV4447R+3R+7.5

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 14, 2026.

The state

Lean R+22: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+18.2R+20.4 vs. nation2020 presidentR+16.8R+21.3 vs. nation2024 presidentR+23.1R+21.6 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
2,946,779
Adults with a B.A.+
25%
White, no degree
42%of adults
  • White 55%
  • Hispanic 4%
  • Black 36%
  • Asian 1%
  • Other / multiracial 4%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

1,214,412 two-party votes · R+23.1 · R+21.6 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)61.6%
Kamala Harris (D)38.4%

2020

1,311,354 votes · R+10.2
✓ Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)54.1%
Mike Espy (D)44.1%
Jimmy L. Edwards (L)1.8%

2020 President Vote in this state

1,296,162 two-party votes · R+16.8 · R+21.3 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)58.4%
Joe Biden (D)41.6%

2018 runoff

907,588 votes · R+7.3
✓ Hyde-Smith, Cindy (R)53.6%
Espy, Mike (D)46.4%

2018

945,467 votes · R+0.4
✓ Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)41.2%
Mike Espy (D)40.9%
Chris McDaniel (R)16.4%
Tobey Bernard Bartee (D)1.5%

2016 President Vote in this state

1,185,845 two-party votes · R+18.2 · R+20.4 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)59.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)40.9%

2014

631,858 votes · R+22.5
✓ Thad Cochran (R)59.9%
Travis W. Childers (D)37.9%
Shawn O'Hara (REF)2.2%

2008

1,247,026 votes · R+22.9
✓ Thad Cochran (R)61.4%
Erik Fleming (D)38.6%

2002

630,495 votes · Uncontested by the other party
✓ Thad Cochran (R)84.6%
Shawn O'Hara (REF)15.4%