Democratic
Beau Bayh
Attorney and son of former Senator Evan Bayh
- Experience
- No elected office
Indiana › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Indiana Secretary of State
Engling is favored to win: Engling wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Bayh (D)
37%
chance of winning
Engling (R)
63%
- Average margin
- R+2.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+8
- Partisan lean
- R+19
- Polls
- 3in our database
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (55% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Bayh (D)
55%
chance of winning
Engling (R)
45%
- Average margin
- D+1.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- R+19
- Polls
- 3in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Max Engling
Political aide and candidate for IN-05 in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
Libertarian
Lauri Shillings
Business owner and nominee for IN-5 in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
Independent
Greg Ballard
Former Republican mayor of Indianapolis (2008–2016)
- Experience
- Local office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Indiana state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.35 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 3 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Bayh | Engling | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bellwether Research | Oct 8–Oct 11 | 896 LV | 43 | 35 | D+8 | D+9.4 |
| The Tarrance Group for Hoosier Leadership for America, which supports Engling's campaignR-sponsored | Sep 27–Sep 30 | 600 LV | 37 | 38 | R+1 | D+4.9 |
| Schoen Cooperman Research for an insider in the Bayh campaignD-sponsored | Sep 1–Sep 3 | 605 LV | 42 | 36 | D+6 | D+4.3 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 11, 2026.
The state
Lean R+19: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 6,851,073
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 55%of adults
- White 75%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 9%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
2,883,950 two-party votes · R+19.3 · R+17.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.7%
Kamala Harris (D)40.3%
2022
759,457 votes · R+21.7✓ Diego Morales (R)57.0%
Destiny Wells (D)36.7%
Jeffrey Maurer (L)6.3%
2020 President Vote in this state
2,971,935 two-party votes · R+16.4 · R+20.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.2%
Joe Biden (D)41.8%
2018
2,237,455 votes · R+16.6✓ Connie Lawson (R)56.1%
Jim Harper (D)40.1%
Mark W Rutherford (L)3.7%
2016 President Vote in this state
2,590,412 two-party votes · R+20.2 · R+22.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.9%