Democratic
Nick Mansour
Former nursing college CEO
- Experience
- No elected office
Arizona › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arizona Treasurer
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (79%).
Mansour is favored to win: Mansour wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Mansour (D)
79%
chance of winning
Norton (R)
21%
- Average margin
- D+4.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- 5in our database
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (81%).
Mansour is clearly favored to win: Mansour wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Mansour (D)
81%
chance of winning
Norton (R)
19%
- Average margin
- D+6.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- 5in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Elijah Norton
Former treasurer of the Arizona Republican Party and candidate for AZ-1 in 2022
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Arizona state offices
- +0.2Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.21 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 5 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Mansour | Norton | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HighGround, Inc. | Oct 6–Oct 8 | 400 LV | 45 | 35 | D+10 | D+8.0 |
| Grayhouse for Norton's campaignR-sponsored | Oct 6–Oct 8 | 550 LV | 41 | 43 | R+2 | D+5.2 |
| HighGround, Inc. | Aug 15–Aug 18 | 400 LV | 42 | 39 | D+3 | D+0.3 |
| GrayhouseR-sponsored | Aug 11–Aug 13 | 600 LV | 39 | 41 | R+2 | D+2.0 |
| Stealth Analytics | Aug 11–Aug 13 | 530 LV | 35 | 39 | R+4 | R+2.5 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 8, 2026.
The state
Lean R+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 7,378,838
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 36%of adults
- White 53%
- Hispanic 31%
- Black 4%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
3,353,102 two-party votes · R+5.6 · R+4.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.8%
Kamala Harris (D)47.2%
2022
2,332,119 votes · R+9.6✓ Kimberly Yee (R)54.8%
Martin Quezada (D)45.2%
2020 President Vote in this state
3,333,829 two-party votes · D+0.3 · R+4.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.2%
Donald Trump (R)49.8%
2018
2,303,834 votes · R+8.6✓ Kimberly Yee (R)54.2%
Mark Manoil (D)45.7%
2016 President Vote in this state
2,413,568 two-party votes · R+3.8 · R+6.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.1%