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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Texas › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Texas Lieutenant Governor

Patrick is favored to win: Patrick wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.

Goodwin (D)
29%
chance of winning
Patrick (R)
71%
Average margin
R+3.4
80% of outcomes
R+12 to D+5
Partisan lean
R+12
Polls
16in our database

Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (43% chance it changes parties).

A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.

Goodwin (D)
43%
chance of winning
Patrick (R)
57%
Average margin
R+1.4
80% of outcomes
R+11 to D+8
Partisan lean
R+12
Polls
16in our database

Range of outcomes

R+3.4R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
R+1.4R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Goodwin 29%Patrick 71%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Goodwin 43%Patrick 57%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Texas state offices
+0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
Environment here
D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodR+0.5Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+5.7Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Texas and look-alikeplacesR+5.5Polling average16 polls, latest Oct 5R+1.5Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+3.4Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayR+1.4

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)-1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge-0.33
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation2.73
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation2.73

Polls

R+5EvenD+5Avg. R+1.5Jan 31Nov 3
All 16 polls
PollsterDatesSampleGoodwinPatrickMarginAdjusted
University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectSep 25–Oct 5861 LV4946D+3D+3.3
Stratus IntelligenceR-sponsoredSep 22–Sep 24865 LV4449R+5R+2.6
Texas Public Opinion ResearchSep 19–Sep 221,007 LV4447R+3R+4.7
Texas Southern UniversitySep 15–Sep 191,800 LV4147R+6R+5.3
ReconMR/Siena UniversitySep 8–Sep 11614 LV4746D+1R+1.1
Texas Public Opinion ResearchAug 21–Aug 241,000 LV4147R+6R+7.2
University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectAug 5–Aug 131,200 RV3542R+7
Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena UniversityJul 27–Jul 30619 LV4846D+2
Texas Southern UniversityJul 27–Jul 301,200 LV3946R+7
University of Texas/YouGovJun 5–Jun 121,200 RV3643R+7
Texas A&M University/ReconMRJun 1–Jun 4807 LV4449R+5
Texas Southern University/YouGovApr 22–May 51,223 LV4047R+7
University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectApr 10–Apr 201,200 RV3135R+4
UT TylerFeb 13–Feb 221,117 RV4247R+5
University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectFeb 2–Feb 161,300 RV3137R+6
University of Houston/YouGovJan 20–Jan 311,502 LV4146R+5

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 5, 2026.

The state

Lean R+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+9.4R+11.7 vs. nation2020 presidentR+5.7R+10.2 vs. nation2024 presidentR+13.9R+12.4 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
30,188,424
Adults with a B.A.+
34%
White, no degree
25%of adults
  • White 39%
  • Hispanic 40%
  • Black 12%
  • Asian 6%
  • Other / multiracial 4%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

11,228,847 two-party votes · R+13.9 · R+12.4 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)56.9%
Kamala Harris (D)43.1%

2022

8,033,629 votes · R+10.6
✓ Patrick (R)53.7%
Collier (D)43.5%
Steele (L)2.8%

2020 President Vote in this state

11,149,473 two-party votes · R+5.7 · R+10.2 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)52.8%
Joe Biden (D)47.2%

2018

8,303,519 votes · R+4.9
✓ Patrick (R)51.3%
Collier (D)46.5%
McKennon (L)2.2%

2016 President Vote in this state

8,562,915 two-party votes · R+9.4 · R+11.7 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)54.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.3%

Also on the ballot in Texas

U.S. SenateJames TalaricoKen PaxtonD flipD flip70%Dem.61%Dem. GovernorGina HinojosaGreg Abbott68%Rep.64%Rep.