Forecast updates · Forecast as of Nov 3

Tuesday, November 3, 2026

Calls changed: 20
Party changes: 11
New polls: 118
New FEC totals: 2
Compared with: Nov 2

Top line

The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Nov 2. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.

Senate

Chance of a Senate majority

D 80%▼ R +2

Expected seats 52.5 D · 47.5 R (−0.2 D since Nov 2)

D 76%▼ R +2

Expected seats 52.4 D · 47.6 R (−0.2 D since Nov 2)

House

Chance of a House majority

D 99%no change

Expected seats 241.4 D · 193.6 R (−0.3 D since Nov 2)

D 97%no change

Expected seats 242.8 D · 192.2 R (−0.6 D since Nov 2)

Governors

Chance of a majority of governorships

D 81%▼ R +1

Expected seats 27.7 D · 22.3 R (−0.1 D since Nov 2)

D 83%▼ R +1

Expected seats 28.0 D · 22.0 R (−0.2 D since Nov 2)

Generic ballot (likely voters)

D+8.8no change

Forecast environment

D+9.6R +0.1

Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.

Major changes

Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).

Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Nov 2 → now.

Senate races

U.S. Senate in AlaskaNow R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
U.S. Senate in KansasToss-up → Lean D

Governor races

Alaska GovernorLikely D → Lean D
Kansas GovernorLean R → Toss-up
South Carolina GovernorLikely R → Solid R

State legislative chambers

New Hampshire State SenateToss-up → Lean R

Trifectas

States whose trifecta odds changed category
State	Before	After
Kansas	D trifecta <1% · R trifecta 64%	D trifecta <1% · R trifecta 57%
Minnesota	D trifecta 96% · R trifecta <1%	D trifecta 95% · R trifecta <1%
South Carolina · R trifecta now	D trifecta <1% · R trifecta 93%	D trifecta <1% · R trifecta 95%

Every call change

20 races changed rating or favored party since Nov 2 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.

Senate 2 changes

U.S. Senate in AlaskaNow R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
U.S. Senate in KansasToss-up → Lean D

Governors 3 changes

Alaska GovernorLikely D → Lean D
Kansas GovernorLean R → Toss-up
South Carolina GovernorLikely R → Solid R

House 1 change

MT-1Lean D → Toss-up

State legislatures 14 changes in 12 chambers

Alaska House of Representatives · 1 change

HD-11Toss-up → Lean R

Connecticut House of Representatives · 1 change

HD-112Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up

Maine House of Representatives · 2 changes

HD-86Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
HD-143Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up

Michigan House of Representatives · 2 changes

HD-27Lean D → Toss-up
HD-68Toss-up → Lean R

Michigan State Senate · 1 change

SD-9Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up

Nebraska Legislature · 1 change

LD-4Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up

New Hampshire House of Representatives · 1 change

State House District Hillsborough 42Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up

New Hampshire State Senate · 1 change

SD-12Lean D → Toss-up

Ohio House of Representatives · 1 change

HD-44Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up

Ohio State Senate · 1 change

SD-13Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up

Pennsylvania House of Representatives · 1 change

HD-13Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up

South Dakota House of Representatives · 1 change

LD-14Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up

New polls

118 polls new since Nov 2, in 41 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.

New polls
Race	Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Margin	Source
U.S. Senate in Alaska	AtlasIntel	Oct 28–Nov 1	522 LV	D 50.1 · R 44.6	D+6	pollstergraph.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Alaska	InsiderAdvantage	Oct 31–Nov 1	1,200 LV	D 48.3 · R 48.1	Even	insideradvantage.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Alaska	InsiderAdvantage	Oct 31–Nov 1	1,200 LV	D 50.1 · R 49.9	Even	insideradvantage.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Alaska	The New York Times/Siena University	Oct 23–Oct 30	610 LV	D 47.6 · R 46.2	D+1	nytimes.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Colorado	Research Co.	Oct 31–Nov 2	450 LV	D 57 · R 35	D+22	researchco.ca ↗
U.S. Senate in Colorado	YouGov for University of Colorado American Politics Research Lab	Oct 9–Oct 20	710 LV	D 57 · R 39	D+18	colorado.edu ↗
U.S. Senate in Florida (special)	Research Co.	Oct 31–Nov 2	450 LV	D 44 · R 51	R+7	researchco.ca ↗
U.S. Senate in Florida (special)	Targoz Market Research	Oct 26–Oct 29	1,013 LV	D 43 · R 52	R+9	targoz.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Georgia	Research Co.	Oct 31–Nov 2	450 LV	D 52 · R 42	D+10	researchco.ca ↗
U.S. Senate in Georgia	InsiderAdvantage for James Magazine Online	Oct 31–Nov 2	2,500 LV	D 52.7 · R 46	D+7	jamesmagazinega.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Iowa	AtlasIntel	Oct 28–Nov 1	1,219 LV	D 50.5 · R 46.4	D+4	pollstergraph.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Iowa	GrayHouse	Oct 28–Oct 31	601 LV	D 46 · R 48	R+2	grayhouse.com ↗

Show 106 more

New polls (continued)
Race	Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Margin	Source
U.S. Senate in Illinois	Research Co.	Oct 31–Nov 2	450 LV	D 53 · R 41	D+12	researchco.ca ↗
U.S. Senate in Kansas	AtlasIntel	Oct 28–Nov 1	2,038 LV	D 51.9 · R 44.9	D+7	pollstergraph.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Kansas	Survey 160	Oct 27–Nov 1	1,267 LV	D 50 · R 44	D+6	survey160.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Kansas	Survey 160	Oct 27–Nov 1	1,339 RV	D 50 · R 43	D+7	survey160.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Kansas	The New York Times/Siena University	Oct 27–Nov 1	736 LV	D 49 · R 43.9	D+5	nytimes.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Kansas	YouGov	Oct 26–Oct 29	2,086 LV	D 50 · R 49	D+1	d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗
U.S. Senate in Kansas	Emerson College	Oct 26–Oct 28	800 LV	D 49.5 · R 47.1	D+2	emersoncollegepolling.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Kansas	CNN/SSRS	Oct 20–Oct 26	838 LV	D 49 · R 45	D+4	edition.cnn.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Kansas	InsiderAdvantage	Oct 13–Oct 14	1,200 LV	D 46.6 · R 47.7	R+1	insideradvantage.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Kansas	InsiderAdvantage	Oct 9–Oct 10	1,200 LV	D 47.5 · R 46.7	D+1	insideradvantage.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Kansas	YouGov	Sep 24–Oct 4	2,253 LV	D 48 · R 45	D+3	d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗
U.S. Senate in Maine	Emerson College for Poll Vault	Oct 31–Nov 1	600 LV	D 49.4 · R 50.6	R+1	pollvault.substack.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Maine	AtlasIntel	Oct 28–Nov 1	967 LV	D 53.1 · R 44	D+9	pollstergraph.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Maine	Survey 160	Oct 27–Nov 1	1,322 LV	D 50 · R 47	D+3	survey160.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Maine	Survey 160	Oct 27–Nov 1	1,334 RV	D 49 · R 47	D+2	survey160.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Michigan	John Zogby Strategies	Oct 31–Nov 2	1,001 LV	D 51 · R 49	D+2	johnzogbystrategies.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Michigan	Emerson College for Poll Vault	Nov 1	500 LV	D 51.2 · R 45.2	D+6	pollvault.substack.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Michigan	Concord Public Opinion Partners for Education Reform Now AdvocacyD sponsor	Oct 30–Nov 1	510 LV	D 51 · R 41	D+10	concordpublicopinionpartners.org ↗
U.S. Senate in Michigan	AtlasIntel	Oct 28–Nov 1	1,316 LV	D 53.5 · R 46.4	D+7	pollstergraph.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Michigan	Trafalgar GroupR sponsor	Oct 31–Nov 1	1,087 LV	D 47.1 · R 45.9	D+1	thetrafalgargroup.org ↗
U.S. Senate in Minnesota	AtlasIntel	Oct 28–Nov 1	2,133 LV	D 48.1 · R 45.7	D+2	pollstergraph.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Minnesota	Survey 160	Oct 27–Nov 1	1,365 LV	D 52 · R 43	D+9	survey160.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Minnesota	Survey 160	Oct 27–Nov 1	1,410 RV	D 52 · R 42	D+10	survey160.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Minnesota	Research Co.	Oct 30–Nov 1	450 LV	D 48 · R 43	D+5	researchco.ca ↗
U.S. Senate in Minnesota	InsiderAdvantage	Oct 29–Oct 30	1,200 LV	D 49.3 · R 46.4	D+3	insideradvantage.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Minnesota	SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV Minneapolis	Oct 24–Oct 28	714 LV	D 48 · R 41	D+7	kstp.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Minnesota	The New York Times/Siena University	Oct 19–Oct 26	752 LV	D 54.21 · R 40.31	D+14	nytimes.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Minnesota	Victory Insights for Michele Tafoya's campaignR sponsor	Oct 21–Oct 22	1,194 LV	D 47.8 · R 44.4	D+3	irp.cdn-website.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Minnesota	Trafalgar GroupR sponsor	Oct 13–Oct 15	1,079 LV	D 48.1 · R 44.6	D+4	thetrafalgargroup.org ↗
U.S. Senate in Minnesota	SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV Minneapolis	Oct 9–Oct 12	718 LV	D 45 · R 42	D+3	kstp.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Minnesota	Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. for KARE 11, Minnesota Star Tribune	Oct 5–Oct 7	800 LV	D 47 · R 43	D+4	startribune.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Minnesota	Morning Consult for The Daily Agenda	Oct 2–Oct 7	1,000 RV	D 45 · R 41	D+4	thedailyagenda.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North Carolina	AtlasIntel	Oct 28–Nov 1	1,459 LV	D 56.4 · R 41.5	D+15	pollstergraph.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Nebraska	GrayHouse	Oct 29–Nov 1	534 LV	D 46 · R 50	R+4	grayhouse.com ↗
U.S. Senate in New Hampshire	AtlasIntel	Oct 28–Nov 1	1,057 LV	D 52.3 · R 44.2	D+8	pollstergraph.com ↗
U.S. Senate in New Hampshire	National Public Affairs for God, Family, & Country PACR sponsor	Oct 25–Oct 29	800 LV	D 51 · R 46	D+5	backend.natpublicaffairs.com ↗
U.S. Senate in New Hampshire	National Public Affairs for God, Family, & Country PACR sponsor	Oct 25–Oct 29	800 LV	D 51 · R 45	D+6	backend.natpublicaffairs.com ↗
U.S. Senate in New Mexico	Research Co.	Oct 31–Nov 2	450 LV	D 56 · R 37	D+19	researchco.ca ↗
U.S. Senate in Ohio (special)	Emerson College for Poll Vault	Oct 31–Nov 1	930 LV	D 45.8 · R 48.3	R+3	pollvault.substack.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Ohio (special)	AtlasIntel	Oct 28–Nov 1	1,801 LV	D 51.4 · R 43.9	D+8	pollstergraph.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Ohio (special)	Survey 160	Oct 27–Nov 1	1,122 LV	D 50 · R 46	D+4	survey160.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Ohio (special)	Survey 160	Oct 27–Nov 1	1,159 RV	D 50 · R 45	D+5	survey160.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Ohio (special)	Trafalgar GroupR sponsor	Oct 31–Nov 1	1,092 LV	D 46.6 · R 45.1	D+2	thetrafalgargroup.org ↗
U.S. Senate in South Carolina	Trafalgar GroupR sponsor	Oct 31–Nov 1	1,091 LV	D 45.5 · R 47.5	R+2	thetrafalgargroup.org ↗
U.S. Senate in Tennessee	Targoz Market Research	Oct 24–Nov 2	716 LV	D 37 · R 57	R+20	targoz.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Texas	Research Co.	Oct 31–Nov 2	450 LV	D 49 · R 46	D+3	researchco.ca ↗
U.S. Senate in Texas	Emerson College for Poll Vault	Oct 31–Nov 1	500 LV	D 49.8 · R 48.4	D+1	pollvault.substack.com ↗
Alaska Governor	AtlasIntel	Oct 28–Nov 1	522 LV	D 51.5 · R 34	D+18	pollstergraph.com ↗
Colorado Governor	Research Co.	Oct 31–Nov 2	450 LV	D 53 · R 38	D+15	researchco.ca ↗
Colorado Governor	YouGov for University of Colorado American Politics Research Lab	Oct 9–Oct 20	710 LV	D 57 · R 37	D+20	colorado.edu ↗
Florida Governor	Research Co.	Oct 31–Nov 2	450 LV	D 44 · R 48	R+4	researchco.ca ↗
Florida Governor	Targoz Market Research	Oct 26–Oct 29	1,014 LV	D 43 · R 50	R+7	targoz.com ↗
Georgia Governor	Research Co.	Oct 31–Nov 2	450 LV	D 46 · R 45	D+1	researchco.ca ↗
Georgia Governor	InsiderAdvantage for James Magazine Online	Oct 31–Nov 2	2,500 LV	D 49.3 · R 49	Even	jamesmagazinega.com ↗
Iowa Governor	AtlasIntel	Oct 28–Nov 1	1,219 LV	D 54.1 · R 44	D+10	pollstergraph.com ↗
Illinois Governor	Research Co.	Oct 31–Nov 2	450 LV	D 57 · R 36	D+21	researchco.ca ↗
Kansas Governor	AtlasIntel	Oct 28–Nov 1	2,038 LV	D 49.9 · R 45.6	D+4	pollstergraph.com ↗
Kansas Governor	Survey 160	Oct 27–Nov 1	1,267 LV	D 49 · R 48	D+1	survey160.com ↗
Kansas Governor	Survey 160	Oct 27–Nov 1	1,339 RV	D 49 · R 47	D+2	survey160.com ↗
Maine Governor	Emerson College for Poll Vault	Oct 31–Nov 1	600 LV	D 50.3 · R 40.5	D+10	pollvault.substack.com ↗
Maine Governor	AtlasIntel	Oct 28–Nov 1	967 LV	D 49.5 · R 42.1	D+7	pollstergraph.com ↗
Maine Governor	Survey 160	Oct 27–Nov 1	1,323 LV	D 53 · R 41	D+12	survey160.com ↗
Maine Governor	Survey 160	Oct 27–Nov 1	1,335 RV	D 53 · R 41	D+12	survey160.com ↗
Michigan Governor	Emerson College for Poll Vault	Nov 1	500 LV	D 50.4 · R 45.8	D+5	pollvault.substack.com ↗
Michigan Governor	Concord Public Opinion Partners for Education Reform Now AdvocacyD sponsor	Oct 30–Nov 1	510 LV	D 50 · R 41	D+9	concordpublicopinionpartners.org ↗
Michigan Governor	AtlasIntel	Oct 28–Nov 1	1,316 LV	D 53.2 · R 45.2	D+8	pollstergraph.com ↗
Minnesota Governor	Survey 160	Oct 27–Nov 1	1,365 LV	D 53 · R 43	D+10	survey160.com ↗
Minnesota Governor	Survey 160	Oct 27–Nov 1	1,409 RV	D 53 · R 42	D+11	survey160.com ↗
New Hampshire Governor	AtlasIntel	Oct 28–Nov 1	1,057 LV	D 43.8 · R 49.7	R+6	pollstergraph.com ↗
New Hampshire Governor	National Public Affairs for God, Family, & Country PACR sponsor	Oct 25–Oct 29	800 LV	D 43 · R 52	R+9	backend.natpublicaffairs.com ↗
New Mexico Governor	Research Co.	Oct 31–Nov 2	450 LV	D 51 · R 44	D+7	researchco.ca ↗
Ohio Governor	Emerson College for Poll Vault	Oct 31–Nov 1	930 LV	D 48.4 · R 48.3	Even	pollvault.substack.com ↗
Ohio Governor	AtlasIntel	Oct 28–Nov 1	1,801 LV	D 51.8 · R 43.9	D+8	pollstergraph.com ↗
Ohio Governor	Survey 160	Oct 27–Nov 1	1,122 LV	D 51 · R 44	D+7	survey160.com ↗
Ohio Governor	Survey 160	Oct 27–Nov 1	1,159 RV	D 51 · R 43	D+8	survey160.com ↗
South Carolina Governor	Trafalgar GroupR sponsor	Oct 31–Nov 1	1,091 LV	D 39.1 · R 54.1	R+15	thetrafalgargroup.org ↗
Tennessee Governor	Targoz Market Research	Oct 24–Nov 2	718 LV	D 35 · R 54	R+19	targoz.com ↗
Texas Governor	Research Co.	Oct 31–Nov 2	450 LV	D 44 · R 46	R+2	researchco.ca ↗
Texas Governor	Emerson College for Poll Vault	Oct 31–Nov 1	500 LV	D 48.9 · R 49.7	R+1	pollvault.substack.com ↗
Colorado Attorney General	CU Boulder/YouGov	Oct 9–Oct 20	710 LV	D 55 · R 40	D+15	colorado.edu ↗
South Carolina Attorney General	Trafalgar GroupR sponsor	Oct 31–Nov 1	1,091 LV	D 37 · R 52	R+15	thetrafalgargroup.org ↗
Colorado Secretary of State	CU Boulder/YouGov	Oct 9–Oct 20	710 LV	D 56 · R 38	D+18	colorado.edu ↗
Alaska's at-large District	AtlasIntel	Oct 28–Nov 1	522 LV	Ind. 46.6 · R 46.5	Even	pollstergraph.com ↗
California's 7th District	USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab	Oct 28–Nov 1	442 LV	D 49 · R —	—	thedemocracylab.com ↗
Missouri's 2nd District	Emerson College for Poll Vault	Oct 31–Nov 1	413 LV	D 49.5 · R 48.7	D+1	pollvault.substack.com ↗
Montana's 1st District	Emerson College for Poll Vault	Oct 31–Nov 1	311 LV	D 48.8 · R 48.5	Even	pollvault.substack.com ↗
Montana's 1st District	Montana State University Billings	Oct 5–Oct 21	287 A	D 49 · R 32	D+17	dailymontanan.com ↗
Montana's 1st District	Emerson College for Poll Vault	Oct 12–Oct 14	329 LV	D 50 · R 46	D+4	pollvault.substack.com ↗
Montana's 1st District	Public Policy Polling for House Majority PACD sponsor	Oct 12–Oct 14	— LV	D 48 · R 45	D+3	x.com ↗
Generic congressional ballot	John Zogby Strategies	Nov 1–Nov 2	1,001 LV	D 53 · R 47	D+6	johnzogbystrategies.com ↗
Generic congressional ballot	Ipsos for Reuters	Oct 29–Nov 2	1,357 RV	D 49 · R 42	D+7	ipsos.com ↗
Generic congressional ballot	Ipsos for Reuters	Oct 29–Nov 2	1,212 LV	D 52 · R 44	D+8	ipsos.com ↗
Presidential approval	John Zogby Strategies	Nov 1–Nov 2	1,001 LV	Approve 43 · Disapprove 55	−12 net	johnzogbystrategies.com ↗
Presidential approval	Reuters/Ipsos	Oct 29–Nov 2	1,357 RV	Approve 36 · Disapprove 63	−27 net	ipsos.com ↗
Generic congressional ballot	Focaldata for Financial Times	Oct 30–Nov 1	2,090 LV	D 52.27 · R 44.83	D+7	focaldata.com ↗
Generic congressional ballot	Focaldata for Financial Times	Oct 30–Nov 1	2,163 RV	D 50.1 · R 42.54	D+8	focaldata.com ↗
Generic congressional ballot	Focaldata for Financial Times	Oct 30–Nov 1	2,444 A	D 47.16 · R 40.62	D+7	focaldata.com ↗
Generic congressional ballot	Morning Consult	Oct 26–Nov 1	16,929 LV	D 51.02 · R 43.09	D+8	pro-assets.morningconsult.com ↗
Presidential approval	Financial Times/Focaldata	Oct 30–Nov 1	2,090 LV	Approve 35 · Disapprove 61	−26 net	focaldata.com ↗
Generic congressional ballot	YouGov	Oct 27–Oct 30	3,908 LV	D 53 · R 44	D+9	d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗
Generic congressional ballot	TIPP Insights for Issues & Insights	Oct 27–Oct 30	1,158 LV	D 52 · R 42	D+10	tippinsights.com ↗
Presidential approval	NBC News/Hart Research Associates & Public Opinion Strategies	Oct 28–Oct 30	1,000 RV	Approve 40 · Disapprove 60	−20 net	nbcnews.com ↗
Presidential approval	YouGov	Oct 27–Oct 30	3,915 LV	Approve 38 · Disapprove 60	−22 net	d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗
Presidential approval	Big Data Poll	Oct 27–Oct 30	3,214 LV	Approve 40 · Disapprove 58	−18 net	bigdatapoll.com ↗
Presidential approval	I&I/TIPP Insights	Oct 27–Oct 30	1,480 A	Approve 41 · Disapprove 51	−10 net	tippinsights.com ↗
Generic congressional ballot	Change Research	Oct 12–Oct 18	2,240 RV	D 50 · R 39	D+11	youtube.com ↗

Fundraising

2 federal nominees or incumbents with new FEC totals since Nov 2. Two-year totals (2025–26) of their authorized committees.

New fundraising totals
Candidate	Race	Raised	New	Cash on hand	Through
Kevin Mullin Democratic	California's 15th District	$986,645	+$5,000	$191,601	Oct 14
Missi Hesketh Democratic	Missouri's 7th District	$66,640	+$900	$45,852	Oct 14 (was Sep 30)

State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.

Candidates

1 race where the Democratic-side or Republican-side candidate in the forecast changed.

Candidate changes
Race	Side	Before	After
California's 7th District	D	Mai Vang	Doris Matsui