Democratic
Deb Haaland
Former secretary of the interior (2021–2025), former U.S. representative from NM-1 (2019–2021), and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2014
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
New Mexico › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Mexico Governor
Haaland is clearly favored to win: Haaland wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Haaland (D)
91%
chance of winning
Hull (R)
9%
- Average margin
- D+9.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+1 to D+19
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- 5in our database
Haaland is clearly favored to win: Haaland wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Haaland (D)
89%
chance of winning
Hull (R)
11%
- Average margin
- D+10.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+1 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- 5in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Gregg Hull
Mayor of Rio Rancho (2014–2026)
- Experience
- Local office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- New Mexico state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.62 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 5 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Haaland | Hull | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal | Oct 1–Oct 9 | 1,125 LV | 49 | 42 | D+7 | D+8.4 |
| SurveyUSA for KOB | Sep 25–Sep 30 | 567 LV | 47 | 41 | D+6 | D+5.0 |
| Research & Polling Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal | Aug 21–Aug 28 | 516 LV | 49 | 43 | D+6 | D+8.3 |
| BSP ResearchD-sponsored | Jul 22–Aug 7 | 800 RV | 41 | 24 | D+17 | D+20.7 |
| McLaughlin & Associates for Hull's campaignR-sponsored | Jul 13–Jul 15 | 400 LV | 46 | 45 | D+1 | D+11.7 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 9, 2026.
The state
Lean D+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 2,120,246
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 23%of adults
- White 36%
- Hispanic 48%
- Black 2%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 12%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
902,193 two-party votes · D+6.1 · D+7.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.1%
Donald Trump (R)46.9%
2022
709,514 votes · D+6.5✓ Michelle Lujan Grisham (D)52.2%
Mark V Ronchetti (R)45.8%
Karen Evette Bedonie (L)2.1%
2020 President Vote in this state
903,508 two-party votes · D+11.0 · D+6.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.5%
Donald Trump (R)44.5%
2018
696,459 votes · D+14.4✓ Michelle Lujan Grisham And Howie C Morales (D)57.2%
Steve Pearce And Michelle Garcia Holmes (R)42.8%
2016 President Vote in this state
704,901 two-party votes · D+9.3 · D+7.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.7%
Donald Trump (R)45.3%
2014
512,805 votes · R+14.4✓ Susana Martinez (R)57.2%
Gary K. King (D)42.8%
2010
601,833 votes · R+6.7✓ Susana Martinez (R)53.4%
Diane D. Denish (D)46.6%
2006
559,170 votes · D+37.6✓ Bill Richardson (D)68.8%
John Dendahl (R)31.2%
2002
484,232 votes · D+17.4✓ Bill Richardson (D)55.5%
John A. Sanchez (R)39.0%
David E. Bacon (G)5.5%