Democratic
Marquita Bradshaw
Staffing consultant and nominee for this seat in 2020 and candidate in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $2.3K
- Spent
- $1.3K
- Cash on hand
- $1K
Money: FEC, through Jul 17, 2026.
Tennessee › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
U.S. Senate in Tennessee
Hagerty is very likely to win: Hagerty wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Bradshaw (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Hagerty (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+21.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+31 to R+13
- Partisan lean
- R+29
- Polls
- 1in our database
Hagerty is very likely to win: Hagerty wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Bradshaw (D)
1%
chance of winning
Hagerty (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+19.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+29 to R+11
- Partisan lean
- R+29
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Bill Hagerty
Incumbent U.S. senator (2021–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $8.2M
- From individuals
- $4.3M
- Spent
- $4.9M
- Cash on hand
- $5.3M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -3.06 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.54 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.54 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Bradshaw | Hagerty | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research for the Beacon Center of Tennessee | Aug 15–Aug 26 | 1,157 RV | 31 | 51 | R+20 | R+20.5 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Aug 26, 2026.
The state
Lean R+29: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 7,066,383
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 50%of adults
- White 71%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 15%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
3,023,130 two-party votes · R+30.1 · R+28.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.1%
Kamala Harris (D)34.9%
2020
2,959,761 votes · R+27.8✓ Bill Hagerty (R)62.2%
Marquita Bradshaw (D)35.2%
Elizabeth McLeod (I)0.6%
2020 President Vote in this state
2,996,186 two-party votes · R+23.7 · R+28.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.8%
Joe Biden (D)38.2%
2016 President Vote in this state
2,393,620 two-party votes · R+27.2 · R+29.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)36.4%
2014
1,374,060 votes · R+32.0✓ Lamar Alexander (R)61.9%
Gordon Ball (D)31.9%
Joe Wilmoth (CST)2.6%
Martin Pleasant (G)0.9%
Tom Emerson Jr. (I)0.8%
2008
2,424,585 votes · R+34.6✓ Lamar Alexander (R)65.1%
Robert D. Tuke (D)31.6%
Edward L. Buck (I)1.3%
2002
1,642,076 votes · R+10.1✓ Lamar Alexander (R)54.3%
Bob Clement (D)44.3%