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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Colorado › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Colorado Secretary of State

Gonzalez is very likely to win: Gonzalez wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Gonzalez (D)
99%
chance of winning
Wiley (R)
1%
Average margin
D+19.3
80% of outcomes
D+11 to D+28
Partisan lean
D+12
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Gonzalez is very likely to win: Gonzalez wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.

Gonzalez (D)
96%
chance of winning
Wiley (R)
4%
Average margin
D+20.2
80% of outcomes
D+7 to D+34
Partisan lean
D+12
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Range of outcomes

D+19.3R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40
D+20.2R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Gonzalez 99%Wiley 1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Gonzalez 96%Wiley 4%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Colorado state offices
+0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
Environment here
D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodD+20.9Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+19.8Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Colorado andlook-alike placesD+18.7Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+19.3Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+20.3

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge0.33
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation8.32
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.

The state

Lean D+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentD+5.4D+3.1 vs. nation2020 presidentD+13.9D+9.3 vs. nation2024 presidentD+11.3D+12.8 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
5,862,189
Adults with a B.A.+
46%
White, no degree
33%of adults
  • White 65%
  • Hispanic 23%
  • Black 4%
  • Asian 3%
  • Other / multiracial 6%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

3,105,600 two-party votes · D+11.3 · D+12.8 vs. the nation
✓ Kamala Harris (D)55.6%
Donald Trump (R)44.4%

2022

2,484,758 votes · D+13.4
✓ Jena Griswold (D)55.1%
Pam Anderson (R)42.1%
Bennett Rutledge (L)1.5%
Amanda Campbell (OTH)0.7%

2020 President Vote in this state

3,168,959 two-party votes · D+13.9 · D+9.3 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)56.9%
Donald Trump (R)43.1%

2018

2,492,635 votes · D+8.2
✓ Jena Griswold (D)52.7%
Wayne Williams (R)44.7%
Amanda Campbell (OTH)2.1%
Blake Huber (OTH)0.5%

2016 President Vote in this state

2,541,354 two-party votes · D+5.4 · D+3.1 vs. the nation
✓ Hillary Clinton (D)52.7%
Donald Trump (R)47.3%

Also on the ballot in Colorado

U.S. SenateJohn HickenlooperMark Baisley99%Dem.98%Dem. GovernorPhil WeiserVictor Marx96%Dem.94%Dem.