Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 73%no change
Expected seats 52.0 D · 48.0 R (0 D since Oct 24)
D 73%, 73% Democratic.D 69%no change
Expected seats 51.9 D · 48.1 R (+0.1 D since Oct 24)
D 69%, 69% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Oct 25
Sunday, October 25, 2026
- Calls changed
- 2
- Party changes
- 1
- New polls
- 5
- New FEC totals
- 5
- Compared with
- Oct 24
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Oct 24. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 97%no change
Expected seats 237.7 D · 197.3 R (0 D since Oct 24)
D 97%, 97% Democratic.D 94%no change
Expected seats 238.6 D · 196.4 R (0 D since Oct 24)
D 94%, 94% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 70%no change
Expected seats 26.8 D · 23.2 R (−0.1 D since Oct 24)
D 70%, 70% Democratic.D 77%no change
Expected seats 27.5 D · 22.5 R (0 D since Oct 24)
D 77%, 77% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+8.9no change
Forecast environment
D+9.0no change
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
No Senate or governor race, state legislative chamber or trifecta changed its rating or favored party since Oct 24.
Every call change
2 races changed rating or favored party since Oct 24 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
New polls
5 polls new since Oct 24, in 5 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California Governor | McLaughlin & Associates for California Post | Oct 17–Oct 20 | 800 LV | D 55 · R 39.3 | D+16 | nypost.com ↗ |
| Minnesota Secretary of State | KSTP/SurveyUSA | Oct 8–Oct 12 | 718 LV | D 43 · R 37 | D+6 | kstp.com ↗ |
| Connecticut's 5th District | OnMessage Inc. for Chris Shea's campaignR sponsor | Sep 29–Oct 1 | 400 LV | D 51 · R 45 | D+6 | x.com ↗ |
| Ohio's 1st District | Quantus Insights | Oct 19–Oct 21 | 561 LV | D 47.6 · R 43.9 | D+4 | quantusinsights.org ↗ |
| Texas's 9th District | DCCC Targeting TeamD sponsor | Oct 20–Oct 22 | 490 LV | D 47 · R 48 | R+1 | x.com ↗ |
Fundraising
5 federal nominees or incumbents with new FEC totals since Oct 24. Two-year totals (2025–26) of their authorized committees.
| Candidate | Race | Raised | New | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Becky Stille Democratic | Nebraska's 3rd District | $97,390 | +$2,369 | -$50 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Chad Koppie Republican | Illinois's 7th District | $60,409 | +$2,119 | $42 | Oct 14 |
| Brandon Wade Democratic | Oklahoma's 2nd District | $7,983 | +$375 | -$280 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| David Redkey Green | Arizona's 3rd District | $0 | +$0 | $0 | Oct 14 (was Jul 1) |
| Zyon Khalifa Democratic | South Carolina's 2nd District | $29,039 | +$0 | $7,148 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Oct 24.