Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; about half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Ohio › Ohio State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ohio State Senate District 13
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Miller (D)
49%
chance of winning
Manning (R)
51%
- Average margin
- R+0.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Manning is favored to win: Manning wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Miller (D)
36%
chance of winning
Manning (R)
64%
- Average margin
- R+3.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Joe Miller
State representative from the 53rd district (2019–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Gayle Manning
Speaker pro tempore and state representative from the 52nd district (2019-present) (Incumbent Nathan Manning's mother)
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Ohio state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.06 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+10: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 366,730
- People per km²
- 104
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 27%
- White, no degree
- 58%of adults
- White 77%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 6%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
181,168 two-party votes · R+10.9 · R+9.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.5%
Kamala Harris (D)44.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
128,630 votes · R+15.4✓ Nathan H Manning (R)57.7%
Anthony Eliopoulos (D)42.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
178,675 two-party votes · R+7.8 · R+12.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.9%
Joe Biden (D)46.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
131,482 votes · R+8.7✓ Nathan H Manning (R)52.7%
Sharon Sweda (D)44.2%
Homer S Taft (I)3.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
154,409 two-party votes · R+5.2 · R+7.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.4%
2014 Earlier district lines
90,289 votes · R+26.8✓ Gayle Manning (R)63.4%
Marcus Madison (D)36.6%