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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

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New Hampshire › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

New Hampshire Governor

Ayotte is clearly favored to win: Ayotte wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.

Warmington (D)
6%
chance of winning
Ayotte (R)
94%
Average margin
R+9.8
80% of outcomes
R+18 to R+2
Partisan lean
D+4
Polls
11in our database

Ayotte is favored to win: Ayotte wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.

Warmington (D)
26%
chance of winning
Ayotte (R)
74%
Average margin
R+5.8
80% of outcomes
R+18 to D+6
Partisan lean
D+4
Polls
11in our database

Range of outcomes

R+9.8R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30
R+5.8R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30

How this race is decided

Two-year governor's term

The governor is elected every two years, so the office is on the ballot in 2026.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Warmington 6%Ayotte 94%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Warmington 26%Ayotte 74%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Independent

Jon Kiper

Former Newmarket town councilor and Democratic candidate for governor in 2024

Experience
Local office

Profile and career

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
New Hampshire state offices
+0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
Environment here
D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodD+11.7Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+4.8Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in New Hampshire andlook-alike placesR+5.1Polling average11 polls, latest Oct 5R+10.4Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+9.8Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayR+5.8

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)-1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge-0.33
First-term incumbent-1
Seat's last result vs. expectation-8.74
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation-8.74

Polls

R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20Avg. R+10.4Mar 18Nov 3
All 11 polls
PollsterDatesSampleWarmingtonAyotteMarginAdjusted
YouGovSep 28–Oct 51,520 LV4049R+9R+11.5
Saint Anselm College for AARPSep 28–Sep 291,042 LV4552R+7R+7.7
The New York Times/Siena UniversitySep 15–Sep 22613 LV4152R+11R+11.4
University of New HampshireSep 17–Sep 211,418 LV4347R+4R+4.2
co/efficientR-sponsoredSep 9–Sep 11958 LV3455R+21R+19.2
University of New HampshireAug 20–Aug 241,878 LV3949R+10R+10.1
Saint Anselm CollegeAug 17–Aug 181,411 LV3849R+11
Saint Anselm CollegeJun 24–Jun 251,614 RV3745R+8
University of New HampshireJun 18–Jun 232,232 LV3944R+5
University of New HampshireApr 17–Apr 211,117 LV3947R+8
Saint Anselm CollegeMar 16–Mar 181,491 RV3946R+7

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 5, 2026.

The state

Lean D+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentD+0.4R+1.8 vs. nation2020 presidentD+7.5D+3.0 vs. nation2024 presidentD+2.8D+4.3 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
1,394,868
Adults with a B.A.+
41%
White, no degree
53%of adults
  • White 87%
  • Hispanic 5%
  • Black 1%
  • Asian 3%
  • Other / multiracial 5%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024

813,497 votes · R+9.5
✓ Kelly Ayotte (R)53.6%
Joyce Craig (D)44.3%
Stephen Villee (L)2.0%

2024 President Vote in this state

814,011 two-party votes · D+2.8 · D+4.3 vs. the nation
✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.4%
Donald Trump (R)48.6%

2022

617,422 votes · R+15.8
✓ Chris Sununu (R)57.1%
Tom Sherman (D)41.6%
Kelly Halldorson (L)0.8%

2020

793,260 votes · R+32.3
✓ Chris Sununu (R)65.1%
Dan Feltes (D)33.4%
Darryl W Perry (L)1.4%

2020 President Vote in this state

790,575 two-party votes · D+7.5 · D+3.0 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)53.7%
Donald Trump (R)46.3%

2018

573,602 votes · R+7.1
✓ Chris Sununu (R)52.8%
Molly Kelly (D)45.7%
Jilletta Jarvis (L)1.4%

2016

722,872 votes · R+2.4
✓ Chris Sununu (R)49.0%
Colin Van Ostern (D)46.7%
Max Abramson (L)4.3%

2016 President Vote in this state

694,316 two-party votes · D+0.4 · R+1.8 vs. the nation
✓ Hillary Clinton (D)50.2%
Donald Trump (R)49.8%

2014

485,276 votes · D+5.0
✓ Maggie Hassan (D)52.5%
Walter Havenstein (R)47.5%

Also on the ballot in New Hampshire

U.S. SenateChris PappasJohn E. Sununu94%Dem.91%Dem.