Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 80%no change
Expected seats 52.6 D · 47.4 R (0 D since Oct 31)
D 80%, 80% Democratic.D 77%no change
Expected seats 52.4 D · 47.6 R (−0.1 D since Oct 31)
D 77%, 77% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Nov 1
Sunday, November 1, 2026
- Calls changed
- 11
- Party changes
- 7
- New polls
- 22
- New FEC totals
- 1
- Compared with
- Oct 31
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Oct 31. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 99%no change
Expected seats 241.8 D · 193.2 R (+0.3 D since Oct 31)
D 99%, 99% Democratic.D 97%no change
Expected seats 243.5 D · 191.5 R (+0.1 D since Oct 31)
D 97%, 97% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 75%no change
Expected seats 27.1 D · 22.9 R (−0.1 D since Oct 31)
D 75%, 75% Democratic.D 80%no change
Expected seats 27.7 D · 22.3 R (−0.1 D since Oct 31)
D 80%, 80% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+8.7D +0.1
Forecast environment
D+9.6D +0.1
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Oct 31 → now.
Senate races
- U.S. Senate in AlaskaNow D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Every call change
11 races changed rating or favored party since Oct 31 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Senate 1 change
- U.S. Senate in AlaskaNow D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
State legislatures 9 changes in 6 chambers
Connecticut State Senate · 1 change
- SD-32Lean R → Likely R
Kansas House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-41Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Nebraska Legislature · 1 change
- LD-4Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Pennsylvania House of Representatives · 3 changes
South Dakota House of Representatives · 1 change
- LD-14Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New polls
22 polls new since Oct 31, in 11 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
Show 10 more
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska Governor | The New York Times/Siena University | Oct 23–Oct 29 | 809 LV | D 39.57 · R 53.09 | R+14 | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Ohio Governor | ActiVote | Oct 16–Oct 31 | 400 LV | D 50.8 · R 49.2 | D+2 | activote.net ↗ |
| Texas Governor | Kreate Strategies | Oct 27–Oct 30 | 900 LV | D 47 · R 49 | R+2 | kstrat.net ↗ |
| Michigan's 13th District | Center for Strategic Politics for Democratic Socialists of America National Electoral CommissionD sponsor | Oct 28–Oct 30 | 310 LV | D 69 · R 19 | D+50 | stratpolitics.org ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Big Data Poll for Public Polling Project | Oct 27–Oct 30 | 3,214 LV | D 52.3 · R 40 | D+12 | bigdatapoll.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Big Data Poll for Public Polling Project | Oct 27–Oct 30 | 3,418 RV | D 51.2 · R 39.5 | D+12 | bigdatapoll.com ↗ |
| Presidential approval | Napolitan News Service/RMG Research | Oct 19–Oct 27 | 2,000 RV | Approve 43 · Disapprove 55 | −12 net | napolitannews.org ↗ |
| Presidential approval | Emerson College | Oct 24–Oct 26 | 1,000 LV | Approve 37 · Disapprove 57 | −20 net | emersoncollegepolling.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Targoz Market Research | Oct 20–Oct 22 | 1,118 LV | D 49 · R 46 | D+3 | targoz.com ↗ |
| Presidential approval | Targoz Market Research | Oct 20–Oct 22 | 1,118 LV | Approve 36 · Disapprove 63 | −27 net | static1.squarespace.com ↗ |
Fundraising
1 federal nominee or incumbent with new FEC totals since Oct 31. Two-year totals (2025–26) of their authorized committees.
| Candidate | Race | Raised | New | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Terry Independent | Virginia's 7th District | $68,912 | +$12,450 | $10,070 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Oct 31.