Democratic
Michigan › Michigan State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan State Senate District 9
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (52% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Brooks (D)
52%
chance of winning
Webber (R)
48%
- Average margin
- D+0.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+10
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (56% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Brooks (D)
56%
chance of winning
Webber (R)
44%
- Average margin
- D+1.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Michael Webber
- Experience
- State legislature
Working Class
Jacob Schodowski
Independent
Philippe M. Cicchini
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.28 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 266,315
- People per km²
- 1,058
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 53%
- White, no degree
- 37%of adults
- White 69%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 5%
- Asian 17%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
142,181 two-party votes · R+5.3 · R+3.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.7%
Kamala Harris (D)47.3%
2022 Earlier district lines
115,184 votes · R+0.7✓ Michael Webber (R)50.3%
Padma Kuppa (D)49.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
141,637 two-party votes · D+0.9 · R+3.6 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.5%
Donald Trump (R)49.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
99,749 votes · D+31.8✓ Paul Wojno (D)65.9%
Jeff Bonnell (R)34.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
116,188 two-party votes · R+6.0 · R+8.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.0%
2014 Earlier district lines
70,845 votes · D+35.9✓ Steve Bieda (D)68.0%
Hawke Fracassa (R)32.0%