Top line The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Oct 29. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
D 78% ▲ D +2
D 50% R Sep 1 Oct 30 Expected seats 52.3 D · 47.7 R (+0.1 D since Oct 29)
D 78%, 78% Democratic. D 75% ▲ D +2
D 50% R Sep 1 Oct 30 Expected seats 52.2 D · 47.8 R (+0.1 D since Oct 29)
D 75%, 75% Democratic. D 97% ▲ D +1
D 50% R Sep 1 Oct 30 Expected seats 238.1 D · 196.9 R (+1.0 D since Oct 29)
D 97%, 97% Democratic. D 95% ▲ D +1
D 50% R Sep 1 Oct 30 Expected seats 239.7 D · 195.3 R (+0.9 D since Oct 29)
D 95%, 95% Democratic. D 71% ▲ D +2
D 50% R Sep 1 Oct 30 Expected seats 26.9 D · 23.1 R (+0.1 D since Oct 29)
D 71%, 71% Democratic. D 78% ▲ D +1
D 50% R Sep 1 Oct 30 Expected seats 27.5 D · 22.5 R (+0.1 D since Oct 29)
D 78%, 78% Democratic. Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+8.6 D +0.2
Forecast environment
D+9.0 D +0.3
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse .
Major changes Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right):
Governor races Trifectas States whose trifecta odds changed category State Before After Kansas D trifecta <1% · R trifecta 79% D trifecta <1% · R trifecta 82%
Every call change 13 races changed rating or favored party since Oct 29 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
MT-1 Now D favored Toss-up → Toss-up AL-2 Likely R → Lean R AZ-1 Lean D → Likely D State legislatures 8 changes in 8 chambers Iowa House of Representatives · 1 change HD-46 Now D favored Toss-up → Toss-up Massachusetts State Senate · 1 change Montana State Senate · 1 change SD-42 Now D favored Toss-up → Toss-up Nebraska Legislature · 1 change LD-4 Now D favored Toss-up → Toss-up New Hampshire House of Representatives · 1 change North Carolina House of Representatives · 1 change HD-37 Now D favored Toss-up → Toss-up Texas House of Representatives · 1 change HD-112 Now D favored Toss-up → Toss-up Vermont House of Representatives · 1 change New polls 53 polls new since Oct 29, in 30 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
Show 41 more New polls (continued) Race Pollster Dates Sample Result Margin Source U.S. Senate in Michigan Michigan State University Office for Survey Research/Verasight Oct 8–Oct 23 1,383 LV D 51.4 · R 42.2 D+9 polisci.msu.edu ↗ U.S. Senate in Montana Montana State University Billings Oct 5–Oct 21 720 A Ind. 26 · R 30 R+4 dailymontanan.com ↗ U.S. Senate in New Hampshire UMass Lowell Oct 2–Oct 19 600 LV D 48 · R 41 D+7 uml.edu ↗ U.S. Senate in South Carolina East Carolina University Center for Survey Research Oct 19–Oct 24 955 LV D 47.3 · R 51.2 R+4 surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com ↗ U.S. Senate in Texas A2 Insights Oct 23–Oct 27 631 LV D 50.2 · R 47.2 D+3 drive.google.com ↗ U.S. Senate in Texas CNN/SSRS Oct 20–Oct 27 923 LV D 49 · R 43 D+6 edition.cnn.com ↗ U.S. Senate in Texas Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center Oct 21–Oct 25 2,000 LV D 49 · R 47 D+2 static1.squarespace.com ↗ Arizona Governor Kreate Strategies for American Encore R sponsor Oct 25–Oct 27 900 LV D 48.27 · R 43.14 D+5 kstrat.net ↗ Iowa Governor co/efficient Oct 28 1,020 LV D 50 · R 45 D+5 battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗ Kansas Governor CNN/SSRS Oct 20–Oct 26 838 LV D 45 · R 50 R+5 edition.cnn.com ↗ Massachusetts Governor UMass Lowell Oct 7–Oct 18 850 LV D 57 · R 29 D+28 uml.edu ↗ Maine Governor CNN/SSRS Oct 20–Oct 26 783 LV D 53 · R 39 D+14 edition.cnn.com ↗ Michigan Governor CNN/SSRS Oct 20–Oct 27 768 LV D 53 · R 41 D+12 edition.cnn.com ↗ Michigan Governor Mitchell Research & Communications for CBS Detroit Oct 26–Oct 27 636 LV D 49 · R 44 D+5 cbsnews.com ↗ Michigan Governor Michigan State University Office for Survey Research/Verasight Oct 8–Oct 23 1,383 LV D 51.4 · R 41.2 D+10 polisci.msu.edu ↗ Minnesota Governor State Navigate Oct 26–Oct 28 806 LV D 52 · R 42 D+10 articles.statenavigate.com ↗ New Hampshire Governor UMass Lowell Oct 2–Oct 19 600 LV D 42 · R 48 R+6 uml.edu ↗ South Carolina Governor The Citadel Poll Oct 14–Oct 25 1,009 RV D 32 · R 36 R+4 poll.citadel.edu ↗ South Carolina Governor The Citadel Poll Oct 14–Oct 25 890 LV D 31 · R 42 R+11 poll.citadel.edu ↗ Texas Governor ActiVote Oct 23–Oct 29 400 LV D 47.9 · R 52.1 R+4 activote.net ↗ Texas Governor CNN/SSRS Oct 20–Oct 27 923 LV D 46 · R 48 R+2 edition.cnn.com ↗ Texas Governor Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center Oct 21–Oct 25 2,000 LV D 47 · R 50 R+3 static1.squarespace.com ↗ Texas Lieutenant Governor Texas Southern University Oct 21–Oct 25 2,000 LV D 45 · R 49 R+4 wfaa.com ↗ Minnesota Attorney General State Navigate Oct 26–Oct 28 806 LV D 52 · R 44 D+8 articles.statenavigate.com ↗ Texas Attorney General Texas Southern University Oct 21–Oct 25 2,000 LV D 45 · R 49 R+4 wfaa.com ↗ Alabama's 2nd District Remington Oct 23–Oct 25 642 LV D 46 · R 48 R+2 1819news.com ↗ Arizona's 1st District Keating Research, Inc. Oct 26–Oct 28 500 LV D 49.4 · R 45 D+4 keatingresearch.com ↗ California's 4th District David Binder Research for Eric Jones's campaign D sponsor Oct 15–Oct 21 600 LV D 45 · R — — sfgate.com ↗ Minnesota's 8th District Public Policy Polling for Trina Swanson's campaign D sponsor Oct 25–Oct 26 585 RV D 43 · R 49 R+6 trinaforcongress.com ↗ Montana's 1st District Montana State University Billings Oct 5–Oct 21 287 A D 49 · R 32 D+17 dailymontanan.com ↗ Montana's 1st District Emerson College for Poll Vault Oct 12–Oct 14 329 LV D 50 · R 46 D+4 pollvault.substack.com ↗ Montana's 1st District Public Policy Polling for House Majority PAC D sponsor Oct 12–Oct 14 — LV D 48 · R 45 D+3 x.com ↗ Montana's 2nd District Montana State University Billings Oct 5–Oct 21 350 A D 18 · R 29 R+11 dailymontanan.com ↗ Pennsylvania's 7th District Muhlenberg College Oct 6–Oct 15 529 LV D 49 · R 43 D+6 muhlenberg.edu ↗ Generic congressional ballot The Honest Poll Oct 28–Oct 29 1,158 LV D 54 · R 41 D+13 thehonestpoll.com ↗ Generic congressional ballot The Honest Poll Oct 28–Oct 29 1,290 RV D 52 · R 40 D+12 thehonestpoll.com ↗ Generic congressional ballot Tufts Oct 23–Oct 27 1,000 A D 47 · R 36 D+11 tufts.app.box.com ↗ Generic congressional ballot Tufts Oct 23–Oct 27 499 LV D 52 · R 40 D+12 tufts.app.box.com ↗ Presidential approval Tuft Public Opinion Lab/YouGov Oct 23–Oct 27 1,000 A Approve 36 · Disapprove 61 −25 net tufts.app.box.com ↗ Presidential approval Clarity Campaign Labs Oct 15–Oct 21 1,016 LV Approve 42 · Disapprove 56 −14 net claritycampaigns.com ↗ Presidential approval NPR/PBS/Marist College Oct 19–Oct 20 1,289 RV Approve 38 · Disapprove 61 −23 net maristpoll.marist.edu ↗
Fundraising 6 federal nominees or incumbents with new FEC totals since Oct 29. Two-year totals (2025–26) of their authorized committees.
New fundraising totals Candidate Race Raised New Cash on hand Through Glenn Grothman Republican Wisconsin's 6th District $1,209,007 +$15,452 $615,525 Oct 14 Maria Rodriquez Republican Kentucky's 3rd District $84,149 +$9,070 $40,281 Oct 14 (was Sep 30) Shannon Taylor Democratic Virginia's 1st District $4,607,379 +$2,618 $598,734 Oct 14 Ty Pinkins Independent U.S. Senate in Mississippi $104,686 +$375 $4,047 Oct 14 (was Sep 30) Alani Bankhead Democratic U.S. Senate in Montana $190,565 +$25 $22,820 Oct 14 Kellie Keenan Republican Rhode Island's 1st District $15,435 +$25 $1,465 Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates 1 race where the Democratic-side or Republican-side candidate in the forecast changed.
Sources. Forecast updated Oct 30, 2026, 3:02 AM ET. 99chambers forecast (as of Oct 30, 2026; compared with Oct 29, 2026)Polls: The New York Times (Senate, governor, House, generic ballot) Polls: Wikipedia poll tables (approval, other statewide offices, legislatures) Fundraising: Federal Election Commission bulk data, nightly files compared New since the previous update: polls added to our database after that forecast ran (another version of a poll already listed, or a poll that ended more than 30 days earlier, is not new); FEC totals that changed between the files each forecast used