Democratic
Pennsylvania › Pennsylvania House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pennsylvania House District 13
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (55% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Alvarino (D)
55%
chance of winning
Lawrence (R)
45%
- Average margin
- D+0.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+11
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (60% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Alvarino (D)
60%
chance of winning
Lawrence (R)
40%
- Average margin
- D+2.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
John Lawrence
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Pennsylvania state offices
- +0.8Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.3Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.12 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -9.3 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -9.3 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 66,330
- People per km²
- 134
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 44%
- White, no degree
- 43%of adults
- White 75%
- Hispanic 15%
- Black 3%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
35,463 votes · R+16.0✓ John Adda Lawrence (R)58.0%
Cristian Luna-Valente (D)42.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
35,522 two-party votes · R+4.8 · R+3.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.4%
Kamala Harris (D)47.6%
2022
27,506 votes · R+18.7✓ John Adda Lawrence (R)59.4%
David Cunningham (D)40.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
34,281 votes · R+17.9✓ John Adda Lawrence (R)59.0%
Richard Raymond Ruggieri III (D)41.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
33,967 two-party votes · R+2.3 · R+6.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.2%
Joe Biden (D)48.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
28,411 two-party votes · R+8.3 · R+10.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.9%