Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 72%no change
Expected seats 51.9 D · 48.1 R (0 D since Oct 26)
D 72%, 72% Democratic.D 69%no change
Expected seats 51.8 D · 48.2 R (0 D since Oct 26)
D 69%, 69% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Oct 27
Tuesday, October 27, 2026
- Calls changed
- 2
- Party changes
- 1
- New polls
- 16
- New FEC totals
- 6
- Compared with
- Oct 26
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Oct 26. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 97%no change
Expected seats 237.6 D · 197.4 R (0 D since Oct 26)
D 97%, 97% Democratic.D 94%no change
Expected seats 238.6 D · 196.4 R (+0.1 D since Oct 26)
D 94%, 94% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 68%▼ R +2
Expected seats 26.6 D · 23.4 R (−0.2 D since Oct 26)
D 68%, 68% Democratic.D 75%▼ R +2
Expected seats 27.3 D · 22.7 R (−0.1 D since Oct 26)
D 75%, 75% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+8.8no change
Forecast environment
D+9.0no change
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Oct 26 → now.
Governor races
- Nevada GovernorToss-up → Lean R
Trifectas
| State | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| Nevada | D trifecta 41% · R trifecta <1% | D trifecta 23% · R trifecta <1% |
Every call change
2 races changed rating or favored party since Oct 26 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Governors 1 change
- Nevada GovernorToss-up → Lean R
Statewide offices 1 change
- Nevada AuditorNow R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New polls
16 polls new since Oct 26, in 8 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
Show 4 more
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Generic congressional ballot | Ipsos for Reuters | Oct 22–Oct 26 | 1,280 RV | D 50 · R 41 | D+9 | ipsos.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Ipsos for Reuters | Oct 22–Oct 26 | 1,164 LV | D 53 · R 44 | D+9 | ipsos.com ↗ |
| Presidential approval | Reuters/Ipsos | Oct 22–Oct 26 | 1,679 A | Approve 32 · Disapprove 66 | −34 net | ipsos.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Morning Consult | Oct 19–Oct 25 | 17,491 LV | D 50.1 · R 43.4 | D+7 | intel.morningconsult.com ↗ |
Fundraising
6 federal nominees or incumbents with new FEC totals since Oct 26. Two-year totals (2025–26) of their authorized committees.
| Candidate | Race | Raised | New | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nadia Milleron Independent | Massachusetts's 1st District | $1,585,489 | +$1,035,900 | $310,205 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Kent Udell Democratic | Utah's 3rd District | $99,541 | +$7,916 | $5,716 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Lakesha Womack Democratic | North Carolina's 14th District | $59,183 | +$6,434 | $4,793 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Brian Shaver Democratic | Ohio's 5th District | $59,140 | +$6,310 | $39,323 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Chris Lancia Republican | Connecticut's 3rd District | $17,486 | +$2,837 | $68 | Oct 14 (was Jun 30) |
| Pedro DeSouza Independent | Rhode Island's 1st District | $13,118 | +$53 | $112 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Oct 26.