New Hampshire · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Who will control the New Hampshire State Senate?
All 24 seats are on the ballot. 13 seats make a majority. 16 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.
Republicans are favored to control the New Hampshire State Senate (62%).
- Avg. D seats
- 12.180% range 9–16
- Avg. R seats
- 11.980% range 8–15
- Now
- 8 D · 16 R24 up this year
Republican supermajority now (16 of 24 seats; 16 needed for two-thirds): 5% chance it holds · 95% chance it's broken.
8 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party16 R now
Democrats are favored to control the New Hampshire State Senate (62%), which would flip it from Republican control.
- Avg. D seats
- 13.580% range 10–17
- Avg. R seats
- 10.580% range 7–14
- Now
- 8 D · 16 R24 up this year
Republican supermajority now (16 of 24 seats; 16 needed for two-thirds): 2% chance it holds · 98% chance it's broken.
8 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party16 R now
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Race ratings
All 24 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.
2 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
3 seats projected to flip: 3 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.
The map
Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.
New Hampshire
Manchester-Nashua
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Seats to watch
The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.
Closest races
Most likely to flip
How the odds have moved
Chance of winning control, by forecast date.
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Every outcome we simulated
Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.
Every race
24 races, 1 without a contest between the major parties.
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD-1 | ● Cathleen Fountain● David RochefortINC | R+6.9R+4.9 | R+7 | — | ||
| SD-2 | ● Kurt Webber● Timothy Lang Sr.INC | R+6.1R+2.8 | R+5 | — | ||
| SD-3 | ● Bobbi Boudman● Mark McConkeyINC | R+3.7R+2.7 | R+4 | — | ||
| SD-4 | ● David H. WattersINC● Shawn Mickelonis | D+23.8D+23.3 | D+22 | — | ||
| SD-5 | ● Suzanne M. PrentissINC● Conrad Schoeffter | D+40.2D+39.9 | D+40 | — | ||
| SD-6 | ● Cecil Abels● James P. GrayINC | R+10.7R+8.4 | R+11 | — | ||
| SD-7 | ● Rebecca Harned● Dan InnisINC | R+5.9R+3.7 | R+6 | — | ||
| SD-8 | ● David Trumble● Jim Creighton | R+9.6R+8.6 | R+11 | — | ||
| SD-9Flip riskFlip risk | ● Matthew McLaughlin● Denise RicciardiINC | R+1.0D+1.2 | Even | — | ||
| SD-10 | ● Donovan FentonINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+26 | — | |
| SD-11D flipD flip | ● Shannon E. Chandley● Tim McGoughINC | D+6.5D+8.6 | D+7 | — | ||
| SD-12Flip riskD flip | ● Carryl Roy● Kevin AvardINC | D+1.5D+5.6 | D+4 | — | ||
| SD-13 | ● Laura Telerski● Daniel J. Paul | D+19.8D+19.6 | D+15 | — | ||
| SD-14 | ● Timothy T. Wyatt● Sharon M. CarsonINC | R+8.3R+6.3 | R+8 | — | ||
| SD-15 | ● Tara ReardonINC● Dennis Blankenbeker | D+29.7D+27.6 | D+27 | — | ||
| SD-16 | ● Dian McCarthy● Keith MurphyINC | R+5.6R+4.7 | R+7 | — | ||
| SD-17 | ● Robert Lawliss● Howard PearlINC | R+11.0R+10.1 | R+12 | — | ||
| SD-18D flipD flip | ● Leonard Bell● Victoria SullivanINC | D+3.2D+8.2 | D+5 | — | ||
| SD-19 | ● Michelle Moge● Regina BirdsellINC | R+11.8R+10.1 | R+12 | — | ||
| SD-20 | ● Pat LongINC● Patrick Binder | D+17.4D+14.3 | D+10 | — | ||
| SD-21 | ● Rebecca Perkins KwokaINC● Jeffrey Berlin | D+40.1D+40.7 | D+39 | — | ||
| SD-22 | ● Chris Tardif● Daryl AbbasINC | R+17.2R+16.3 | R+19 | — | ||
| SD-23 | ● David Childs● Bill GannonINC | R+14.6R+13.4 | R+15 | — | ||
| SD-24 | ● Debra AltschillerINC● Lou Gargiulo | D+19.7D+19.3 | D+19 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).