DemocraticIncumbent
John Hickenlooper
Incumbent U.S. senator
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $9.3M
- From individuals
- $6.5M
- Spent
- $8.4M
- Cash on hand
- $2.3M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Colorado › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
U.S. Senate in Colorado
Hickenlooper is very likely to win: Hickenlooper wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Hickenlooper (D)
99%
chance of winning
Baisley (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+22.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+11 to D+35
- Partisan lean
- D+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Hickenlooper is very likely to win: Hickenlooper wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Hickenlooper (D)
98%
chance of winning
Baisley (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+20.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+8 to D+33
- Partisan lean
- D+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Mark Baisley
State senator from the 4th district (2023–present) (previously ran for governor)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $138.2K
- From individuals
- $134.9K
- Spent
- $110.8K
- Cash on hand
- $28.2K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.26 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.76 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.76 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The state
Lean D+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 5,862,189
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 46%
- White, no degree
- 33%of adults
- White 65%
- Hispanic 23%
- Black 4%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
3,105,600 two-party votes · D+11.3 · D+12.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)55.6%
Donald Trump (R)44.4%
2020
3,235,790 votes · D+9.5✓ John W. Hickenlooper (D)53.5%
Cory Gardner (R)44.2%
Raymon Anthony Doane (L)1.7%
2020 President Vote in this state
3,168,959 two-party votes · D+13.9 · D+9.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)56.9%
Donald Trump (R)43.1%
2016 President Vote in this state
2,541,354 two-party votes · D+5.4 · D+3.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)52.7%
Donald Trump (R)47.3%
2014
2,041,020 votes · R+2.1✓ Cory Gardner (R)48.2%
Mark Udall (D)46.3%
Gaylon Kent (L)2.6%
Steve Shogan (I)1.4%
Ra_l Acosta (I)1.2%
2008
2,331,486 votes · D+10.8✓ Mark Udall (D)52.8%
Bob Schaffer (R)42.5%
Douglas "dayhorse" Campbell (CST)2.6%
Bob Kinsey (G)2.1%
2002
1,415,486 votes · R+5.1✓ Wayne Allard (R)50.7%
Tom Strickland (D)45.8%
Doulgas "dayhorse" Campbell (CST)1.5%
Rick Stanley (L)1.5%
John Heckman (OTH)0.5%