DemocraticIncumbent
JB Pritzker
Incumbent governor (2019–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
Illinois › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Illinois Governor
Pritzker is very likely to win: Pritzker wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Pritzker (D)
99%
chance of winning
Bailey (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+19.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+11 to D+28
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- 2in our database
Pritzker is very likely to win: Pritzker wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Pritzker (D)
99%
chance of winning
Bailey (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+19.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+11 to D+30
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- 2in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Darren Bailey
Former state senator from the 55th district (2021–2023), nominee for governor in 2022, and candidate for Illinois's 12th congressional district in 2024
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Illinois state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.07 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.07 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Pritzker | Bailey | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling for Chicago News WeeklyD-sponsored | Sep 30–Oct 1 | 569 LV | 54 | 34 | D+20 | D+19.0 |
| Victory Research | Nov 20–Nov 24 | 1,208 LV | 54 | 34 | D+20 | D+24.8 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 1, 2026.
The state
Lean D+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 12,694,798
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 36%of adults
- White 58%
- Hispanic 19%
- Black 13%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
5,511,942 two-party votes · D+11.1 · D+12.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)55.6%
Donald Trump (R)44.4%
2022
4,106,208 votes · D+12.9✓ Jb Pritzker (D)54.9%
Darren Bailey (R)42.4%
Scott Schluter (L)2.7%
2020 President Vote in this state
5,918,806 two-party votes · D+17.3 · D+12.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)58.7%
Donald Trump (R)41.3%
2018
4,560,012 votes · D+16.8✓ Jb Pritzker (D)54.4%
Bruce Rauner (R)38.7%
William "sam" McCann (OTH)4.2%
Grayson Kash Jackson (L)2.4%
2016 President Vote in this state
5,236,744 two-party votes · D+18.0 · D+15.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)59.0%
Donald Trump (R)41.0%
2014
3,504,970 votes · R+4.1✓ Bruce Rauner (R)52.0%
Pat Quinn (D)48.0%
2010
3,729,746 votes · D+0.9✓ Pat Quinn (D)46.8%
Bill Brady (R)45.9%
Scott Lee Cohen (I)3.6%
Rich Whitney (G)2.7%
Lex Green (L)0.9%
2006
3,467,382 votes · D+11.8✓ Rod Blagojevich (D)50.1%
Judy Baar Topinka (R)39.5%
Rich Whitney (G)10.4%
2002
3,442,000 votes · D+7.3✓ Rod R. Blagojevich (D)53.7%
Jim Ryan (R)46.3%