Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 73%▲ D +1
Expected seats 52.0 D · 48.0 R (0 D since Oct 27)
D 73%, 73% Democratic.D 69%▲ D +1
Expected seats 51.9 D · 48.1 R (+0.1 D since Oct 27)
D 69%, 69% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Oct 28
Wednesday, October 28, 2026
- Calls changed
- 18
- Party changes
- 8
- New polls
- 50
- New FEC totals
- 0
- Compared with
- Oct 27
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Oct 27. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 97%no change
Expected seats 237.0 D · 198.0 R (−0.6 D since Oct 27)
D 97%, 97% Democratic.D 94%no change
Expected seats 238.2 D · 196.8 R (−0.4 D since Oct 27)
D 94%, 94% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 66%▼ R +2
Expected seats 26.5 D · 23.5 R (−0.1 D since Oct 27)
D 66%, 66% Democratic.D 73%▼ R +1
Expected seats 27.2 D · 22.8 R (−0.1 D since Oct 27)
D 73%, 73% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+8.5R +0.4
Forecast environment
D+8.8R +0.2
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Oct 27 → now.
Senate races
- U.S. Senate in Florida (special)Lean R → Likely R
Governor races
- Maine GovernorSolid D → Likely D
Every call change
18 races changed rating or favored party since Oct 27 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Senate 1 change
- U.S. Senate in Florida (special)Lean R → Likely R
Governors 1 change
- Maine GovernorSolid D → Likely D
Statewide offices 1 change
- Nevada AuditorNow D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
State legislatures 15 changes in 8 chambers
New Hampshire House of Representatives · 2 changes
- Sullivan 7Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
- State House District Sullivan 06Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New York State Assembly · 5 changes
New York State Senate · 1 change
- SD-9Lean D → Toss-up
Rhode Island House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-42Likely R → Lean R
South Carolina House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-102Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Texas House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-94Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Vermont House of Representatives · 2 changes
- Caledonia-3 State HouseNow R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
- Caledonia-1 State HouseLean D → Toss-up
New polls
50 polls new since Oct 27, in 31 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
Show 38 more
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate in Texas | Cor Strategies for Heritage ActionR sponsor | Oct 10–Oct 15 | 1,409 LV | D 44 · R 40 | D+4 | dailysignal.com ↗ |
| Arizona Governor | HighGround | Oct 21–Oct 25 | 400 LV | D 51.5 · R 39.3 | D+12 | 12news.com ↗ |
| California Governor | SurveyUSA for KGTV-TV (California), San Diego Union-Tribune | Oct 19–Oct 24 | 799 LV | D 54 · R 32 | D+22 | results.surveyusa.com ↗ |
| California Governor | Public Policy Institute of California | Oct 16–Oct 22 | 1,086 LV | D 61 · R 37 | D+24 | ppic.org ↗ |
| Florida Governor | Echelon Insights for NetChoice | Oct 16–Oct 23 | 515 LV | D 44 · R 50 | R+6 | netchoice.org ↗ |
| Georgia Governor | Echelon Insights for NetChoice | Oct 16–Oct 23 | 508 LV | D 49 · R 48 | D+1 | netchoice.org ↗ |
| Iowa Governor | Echelon Insights | Oct 16–Oct 23 | 403 LV | D 50 · R 46 | D+4 | netchoice.org ↗ |
| Maine Governor | Marist University | Oct 22–Oct 25 | 1,449 RV | D 51 · R 40 | D+11 | maristpoll.marist.edu ↗ |
| Maine Governor | Marist University | Oct 22–Oct 25 | 1,449 LV | D 44 · R 44 | Even | maristpoll.marist.edu ↗ |
| Maine Governor | Echelon Insights for NetChoice | Oct 16–Oct 23 | 413 LV | D 51 · R 38 | D+13 | netchoice.org ↗ |
| Michigan Governor | Glengariff Group, Inc. for Detroit News, WDIV-TV | Oct 19–Oct 22 | 600 LV | D 51.4 · R 44.5 | D+7 | detroitnews.com ↗ |
| Nebraska Governor | Echelon Insights for NetChoice | Oct 16–Oct 23 | 407 LV | D 40 · R 47 | R+7 | netchoice.org ↗ |
| Nevada Governor | Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies for A More Affordable NevadaD sponsor | Oct 20–Oct 25 | 950 LV | D 49 · R 45 | D+4 | hub.nationaljournal.com ↗ |
| Ohio Governor | Echelon Insights for NetChoice | Oct 16–Oct 23 | 508 LV | D 45 · R 47 | R+2 | netchoice.org ↗ |
| South Carolina Governor | The Citadel School of Humanities and Social Sciences | Oct 14–Oct 25 | 1,009 RV | D 32 · R 36 | R+4 | poll.citadel.edu ↗ |
| South Carolina Governor | The Citadel School of Humanities and Social Sciences | Oct 14–Oct 25 | 890 LV | D 31 · R 42 | R+11 | poll.citadel.edu ↗ |
| South Carolina Governor | Targoz Market Research for South Carolina Policy Council | Oct 16–Oct 25 | 895 LV | D 41 · R 51 | R+10 | foxcarolina.com ↗ |
| Texas Governor | YouGov for Univision | Oct 13–Oct 21 | 1,000 RV | D 46 · R 48 | R+2 | univision.com ↗ |
| Vermont Governor | State Navigate | Oct 23–Oct 25 | 1,752 LV | D 46 · R 49 | R+3 | articles.statenavigate.com ↗ |
| Vermont Lieutenant Governor | State Navigate | Oct 23–Oct 25 | 1,752 LV | D 58 · R 37 | D+21 | articles.statenavigate.com ↗ |
| Vermont Lieutenant Governor | State Navigate | Oct 23–Oct 25 | 1,752 LV | D 57 · R 36 | D+21 | articles.statenavigate.com ↗ |
| Arizona Attorney General | HighGround, Inc. | Oct 21–Oct 25 | 400 LV | D 52 · R 41 | D+11 | azhighground.com ↗ |
| Kansas Attorney General | Global Strategy Group for the Democratic Attorneys General AssociationD sponsor | Sep 27–Oct 1 | 700 LV | D 49 · R 45 | D+4 | dems.ag ↗ |
| Arizona Secretary of State | HighGround, Inc. | Oct 21–Oct 25 | 400 LV | D 50 · R 38 | D+12 | azhighground.com ↗ |
| Arizona Treasurer | HighGround, Inc. | Oct 21–Oct 25 | 400 LV | D 47 · R 41 | D+6 | azhighground.com ↗ |
| California's 34th District | USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab | Oct 16–Oct 24 | 423 LV | D 51 · R — | — | politico.com ↗ |
| Florida's 25th District | Public Policy Polling for House Majority PACD sponsor | Oct 26–Oct 27 | 523 LV | D 47 · R 41 | D+6 | x.com ↗ |
| Indiana's 5th District | Quantus Insights | Oct 21–Oct 22 | 634 LV | D 44.6 · R 47.4 | R+3 | indystar.com ↗ |
| Virginia's 1st District | DCCC Targeting TeamD sponsor | Oct 24–Oct 25 | 478 LV | D 48 · R 47 | D+1 | virginiascope.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | HarrisX/Harris Poll for Harvard CAPS | Oct 24–Oct 26 | — LV | D 52 · R 48 | D+4 | harvardharrispoll.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | YouGov for Economist | Oct 23–Oct 26 | 1,263 LV | D 50 · R 41 | D+9 | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | YouGov for Economist | Oct 23–Oct 26 | 1,123 LV | D 52 · R 41 | D+11 | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | YouGov for Economist | Oct 23–Oct 26 | 1,430 RV | D 46 · R 40 | D+6 | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Echelon Insights for NetChoice | Oct 16–Oct 23 | 2,907 LV | D 51 · R 46 | D+5 | netchoice.org ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Morning Consult for Deseret News | Oct 13–Oct 20 | 2,050 RV | D 48 · R 42 | D+6 | deseret.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Marist University for NPR, PBS News | Oct 19–Oct 20 | 1,289 RV | D 52 · R 42 | D+10 | maristpoll.marist.edu ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Marist University for NPR, PBS News | Oct 19–Oct 20 | 1,289 LV | D 52 · R 44 | D+8 | maristpoll.marist.edu ↗ |
| Presidential approval | Deseret News and Hinckley Institute of Politics/Morning Consult | Oct 13–Oct 20 | 2,050 RV | Approve 41 · Disapprove 56 | −15 net | deseret.com ↗ |
Fundraising
0 federal nominees or incumbents with new FEC totals since Oct 27. Two-year totals (2025–26) of their authorized committees.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Oct 27.