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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

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Maine › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Maine Governor

Pingree is very likely to win: Pingree wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.

Pingree (D)
98%
chance of winning
Charles (R)
2%
Average margin
D+12.2
80% of outcomes
D+5 to D+20
Partisan lean
D+8
Polls
18in our database

Pingree is very likely to win: Pingree wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.

Pingree (D)
97%
chance of winning
Charles (R)
3%
Average margin
D+11.8
80% of outcomes
D+4 to D+20
Partisan lean
D+8
Polls
18in our database

Range of outcomes

D+12.2R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30
D+11.8R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Pingree 98%Charles 2%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Pingree 97%Charles 3%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Democratic

Hannah Pingree

Former director of the Maine Governor's Office of Policy Innovation, former Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives (2008–2010) from the 36th district (2002–2010), and daughter of U.S. Representative Chellie Pingree

Experience
State legislature

Profile and career · Wikipedia

Independent

Rick Bennett

State senator (1996–2004, 2020–present), Republican nominee for ME-2 in 1994 and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2012

Experience
State legislature

Profile and career · Wikipedia

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Maine state offices
+0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
Environment here
D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodD+15.1Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+14.0Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Maine and look-alikeplacesD+12.8Polling average15 polls, latest Oct 11D+11.9Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+12.2Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+11.9

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge0.67
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation12.2
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

R+10EvenD+10Avg. D+11.9Jun 26Nov 3
All 18 polls
PollsterDatesSamplePingreeCharlesMarginAdjusted
Suffolk UniversityOct 8–Oct 11500 LV4938D+11D+10.9
The Washington Post/SSPGSep 30–Oct 5800 LV4936D+13D+14.3
Marist UniversityOct 1–Oct 41,505 RV5240D+12D+10.0
CBS/YouGovSep 23–Oct 11,133 LV5644D+12D+12.3
co/efficientR-sponsoredSep 28–Sep 301,240 LV4738D+9D+14.6
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPSep 20–Sep 22982 LV5239D+13
New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena UniversitySep 15–Sep 22619 LV4734D+13
New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena UniversitySep 15–Sep 22619 LV5339D+14
University of New HampshireSep 17–Sep 211,312 LV4840D+8
University of Massachusetts/YouGovAug 28–Sep 14650 LV4938D+11
YouGovSep 2–Sep 81,335 LV4736D+11D+12.5
YouGovSep 2–Sep 81,378 RV4435D+9D+12.5
SSRS for CNNAug 31–Sep 6880 LV5239D+13
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsAug 6–Aug 101,000 RV4938D+11
University of New HampshireJul 15–Jul 201,178 LV4935D+14
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsJun 23–Jun 271,003 RV5342D+11
New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena UniversityJun 19–Jun 26608 LV5036D+14
New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena UniversityJun 19–Jun 26608 LV5540D+15

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 11, 2026.

The state

Lean D+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentD+3.2D+1.0 vs. nation2020 presidentD+9.3D+4.8 vs. nation2024 presidentD+7.1D+8.6 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
1,387,817
Adults with a B.A.+
36%
White, no degree
59%of adults
  • White 90%
  • Hispanic 2%
  • Black 2%
  • Asian 1%
  • Other / multiracial 5%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

813,629 two-party votes · D+7.1 · D+8.6 vs. the nation
✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.5%
Donald Trump (R)46.5%

2022

674,981 votes · D+13.3
✓ Janet T Mills (D)55.6%
Paul R Lepage (R)42.5%
Sam Hunkler (OTH)1.9%

2020 President Vote in this state

795,809 two-party votes · D+9.3 · D+4.8 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)54.7%
Donald Trump (R)45.3%

2018

630,667 votes · D+8.2
✓ Janet T Mills (D)50.9%
Shawn H Moody (R)43.2%
Teresea M Hayes (OTH)5.9%

2016 President Vote in this state

693,328 two-party votes · D+3.2 · D+1.0 vs. the nation
✓ Hillary Clinton (D)51.6%
Donald Trump (R)48.4%

2014

611,176 votes · R+5.3
✓ Paul LePage (R)48.2%
Mike Michaud (D)43.4%
Eliot Cutler (I)8.4%

2010

570,142 votes · R+33.2
✓ Paul LePage (R)38.2%
Eliot Cutler (I)36.5%
Libby Mitchell (D)19.2%
Shawn Moody (I)5.0%
Kevin Scott (I)1.0%

2006

550,865 votes · D+11.6
✓ John Baldacci (D)38.1%
Chandler Woodcock (R)30.2%
Barbara Merrill (I)21.6%
Pat LaMarche (G)9.6%
Phillip Morris Napier (I)0.6%

2002

505,190 votes · D+6.4
✓ John Baldacci (D)47.1%
Peter Cianchette (R)41.5%
Jonathan Carter (G)9.3%
John Michael (I)2.1%

Also on the ballot in Maine

  • RCV Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
U.S. SenateTroy JacksonSusan CollinsD flipD flip68%Dem.76%Dem.