Minnesota · 2026 forecast · Midwest region · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota in 2026
Minnesota elects a U.S. senator and a governor, an attorney general, a secretary of state, an auditor, all 8 members of the U.S. House, all 67 members of the State Senate and all 134 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.
On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · Governor · 3 statewide offices · 8 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.
- U.S. Senate
- D 87%D 85%Peggy Flanagan vs. Michele Tafoya
- Governor
- D 94%D 92%Amy Klobuchar vs. Lisa Demuth
- U.S. House
- 4.6 D · 3.4 R4.6 D · 3.4 RExpected seats of 8 · 1 toss-up
- Minnesota State Senate
- D 96%D 91%Chance of control · 67 of 67 seats up
- Minnesota House of Representatives
- D 98%D 95%Chance of control · 134 of 134 seats up
- Attorney General
- D 95%D 84%Keith Ellison vs. Ron Schutz
- Secretary of State
- D 98%D 88%Steve Simon vs. Tad Jude
- Auditor
- D 87%D 75%Zack Filipovich vs. Scott Jensen + 1 more
U.S. House districts · Minnesota
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Trifecta
Divided government now
No party holds the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- 90%
- Divided
- 10%
- Rep. trifecta
- <1%
Projected change: a Democratic trifecta is most likely (90%).
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- 83%
- Divided
- 17%
- Rep. trifecta
- 1%
Projected change: a Democratic trifecta is most likely (83%).
Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.
Statewide races
Every race decided by the whole state. Statewide offices nationwide.
Statewide offices
Attorney General
Secretary of State
Auditor
Ratings
Likely D3
Lean D1
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans).
The Minnesota environment
The environment Minnesota's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
- Minnesota state offices vs. the nation
- −1.6± 3.7 (80% range) · 4 polled state races
- Minnesota state-office environment
- D+7.91.6 pts more Republican than the nation
The polled state races behind it
Over time
Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Minnesota environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.
U.S. House
8 districts. The national House forecast.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties.
Minneapolis-St. Paul
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MN-1Flip riskFlip risk | ● Jake Johnson● Brad FinstadINC | R+1.2R+1.6 | R+12 | 4 | ||
| MN-2 | ● Matt Little● Eric Pratt | D+13.2D+10.7 | D+6 | 2 | ||
| MN-3 | ● Kelly MorrisonINC● Tyler Bass | D+31.6D+28.8 | D+22 | — | ||
| MN-4 | ● Betty McCollumINC● Paul Wikstrom | D+45.7D+43.9 | D+37 | — | ||
| MN-5 | ● Ilhan OmarINC● John Nagel | D+67.6D+70.4 | D+64 | — | ||
| MN-6 | ● Doug Chapin● Tom EmmerINC | R+11.9R+12.3 | R+20 | — | ||
| MN-7 | ● Erik Osberg● Michelle FischbachINC | R+25.6R+27.5 | R+36 | — | ||
| MN-8 | ● Trina Swanson● Pete StauberINC | R+7.6R+7.0 | R+14 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).
Minnesota Legislature
Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.
Minnesota State Senate
Avg. 39 D – 28 R seats · 34 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 6%
Avg. 38 D – 29 R seats · 34 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 4%
Minnesota State Senate ratings
5 seats projected to flip: 5 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
4 seats projected to flip: 4 R→D. 6 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Minnesota House of Representatives
Avg. 78 D – 56 R seats · 68 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 1%
Avg. 77 D – 57 R seats · 68 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 1%
Minnesota House of Representatives ratings
11 seats projected to flip: 11 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
10 seats projected to flip: 10 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Solid D65
Toss-up2
Solid R43
Solid D58
Likely D7
Lean D12
Toss-up2
Likely R7
Solid R39
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.