Democratic
Phil Weiser
Attorney general of Colorado (2019–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
Colorado › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Colorado Governor
Weiser is very likely to win: Weiser wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Weiser (D)
96%
chance of winning
Marx (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+18.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+5 to D+33
- Partisan lean
- D+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Weiser is clearly favored to win: Weiser wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Weiser (D)
94%
chance of winning
Marx (R)
6%
- Average margin
- D+20.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+5 to D+37
- Partisan lean
- D+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Victor Marx
Ministry leader
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Colorado state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 14.73 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The state
Lean D+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 5,862,189
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 46%
- White, no degree
- 33%of adults
- White 65%
- Hispanic 23%
- Black 4%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
3,105,600 two-party votes · D+11.3 · D+12.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)55.6%
Donald Trump (R)44.4%
2022
2,508,830 votes · D+19.8✓ Jared Polis (D)58.5%
Heidi Ganahl (R)39.2%
Kevin Ruskusky (L)1.2%
Danielle Neuschwanger (OTH)0.9%
2020 President Vote in this state
3,168,959 two-party votes · D+13.9 · D+9.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)56.9%
Donald Trump (R)43.1%
2018
2,525,062 votes · D+11.0✓ Jared Polis / Dianne Primavera (D)53.4%
Walker Stapleton / Lang Sias (R)42.8%
Scott Helker / Michele Poague (L)2.8%
Bill Hammons / Eric Bodenstab (OTH)1.0%
2016 President Vote in this state
2,541,354 two-party votes · D+5.4 · D+3.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)52.7%
Donald Trump (R)47.3%
2014
1,944,628 votes · D+3.5✓ John Hickenlooper (D)51.8%
Bob Beauprez (R)48.2%
2010
1,793,062 votes · D+64.2✓ John Hickenlooper (D)51.1%
Tom Tancredo (CST)36.4%
Dan Maes (R)11.1%
Jaimes Brown (L)0.7%
2006
1,513,982 votes · D+17.3✓ Bill Ritter Jr (D)58.7%
Bob Beauprez (R)41.3%
2002
1,359,956 votes · R+30.1✓ Bill Owens (R)65.0%
Rollie Heath (D)35.0%