DemocraticIncumbent
Ben Ray Luján
Incumbent U.S. senator (2021–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $5.6M
- From individuals
- $2.9M
- Spent
- $2.4M
- Cash on hand
- $4.4M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
New Mexico › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
U.S. Senate in New Mexico
Luján is very likely to win: Luján wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Luján (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Marker (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+18.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+11 to D+27
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- 3in our database
Luján is very likely to win: Luján wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Luján (D)
99%
chance of winning
Marker (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+17.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+9 to D+27
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- 3in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Larry Marker
Former oil and gas operator (write-in)
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $92K
- From individuals
- $86.7K
- Spent
- $81.1K
- Cash on hand
- $1.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.35 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.74 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -3.74 |
Polls
All 3 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Luján | Marker | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal | Oct 1–Oct 9 | 1,125 LV | 53 | 37 | D+16 | D+18.5 |
| SurveyUSA for KOB-TV | Sep 25–Sep 30 | 567 LV | 54 | 36 | D+18 | D+18.2 |
| Research & Polling Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal | Aug 21–Aug 28 | 516 LV | 53 | 38 | D+15 | D+18.2 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 9, 2026.
The state
Lean D+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 2,120,246
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 23%of adults
- White 36%
- Hispanic 48%
- Black 2%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 12%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
902,193 two-party votes · D+6.1 · D+7.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.1%
Donald Trump (R)46.9%
2020
916,215 votes · D+6.3✓ Ben R. Lujan (D)51.8%
Mark V. Ronchetti (R)45.7%
Bob Walsh (L)2.5%
2020 President Vote in this state
903,508 two-party votes · D+11.0 · D+6.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.5%
Donald Trump (R)44.5%
2016 President Vote in this state
704,901 two-party votes · D+9.3 · D+7.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.7%
Donald Trump (R)45.3%
2014
515,506 votes · D+11.1✓ Tom Udall (D)55.6%
Allen E. Weh (R)44.4%
2008
823,650 votes · D+22.7✓ Tom Udall (D)61.3%
Steve Pearce (R)38.7%
2002
483,056 votes · R+30.1✓ Pete V. Domenici (R)65.0%
Gloria Tristani (D)35.0%