Montana State University Billings

Polls

33 in 3 races

Grade

CAccuracy in past elections, A+ to D (how)

House effect, 2026

D+4.5Against other polls, in today's forecast

House effect, past elections

R+0.1Against other polls of the same races

Based on 14 polls of 12 races taken in the last three weeks before elections from 2000 to 2020: they missed the final margin by 8.7 points on average, 0.8 points more than other polls of the same races.

Its polls run 4.5 points more Democratic than other polls of the same races; the forecast removes that before averaging.

In past elections its polls ran 0.1 points more Republican than other polls of the same races; today's estimate starts from that.