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Kansas · 2026 forecast · Midwest region · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Kansas in 2026

Kansas elects a U.S. senator and a governor, an attorney general, a secretary of state, a treasurer, all 4 members of the U.S. House and all 125 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026. The State Senate is next elected in 2028.

On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · Governor · 3 statewide offices · 4 U.S. House seats · 1 legislative chamber.

U.S. Senate
R 54%R 54%Adam Hamilton vs. Roger Marshall + 1 more
Governor
R 76%R 77%Cindy Holscher vs. Ty Masterson
U.S. House
1.1 D · 2.9 R1.1 D · 2.9 RExpected seats of 4
Kansas House of Representatives
R >99%R >99%Chance of control · 125 of 125 seats up
Attorney General
R 91%R 77%Chris Mann vs. Kris Kobach
Secretary of State
R 86%R 77%Jennifer Day vs. Pat Proctor
Treasurer
R 95%R 74%Juan Luengo vs. Steven Johnson

U.S. House districts · Kansas

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Trifecta

Divided government now

No party holds the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.

After the election

Dem. trifecta
<1%
Divided
24%
Rep. trifecta
76%

Projected change: a Republican trifecta is most likely (76%).

After the election

Dem. trifecta
<1%
Divided
23%
Rep. trifecta
77%

Projected change: a Republican trifecta is most likely (77%).

Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.

Statewide races

Every race decided by the whole state. Statewide offices nationwide.

U.S. SenateFlip riskFlip risk

Toss-upToss-up
● Adam Hamilton● Roger MarshallINCAlso: David Graham (L)
46%54%
46%54%

GovernorR flipR flip

Lean RLean R
● Cindy Holscher● Ty Masterson
24%76%
23%77%

Statewide offices

Attorney General

Likely RLean R
● Chris Mann● Kris KobachINC
9%91%
23%77%

Secretary of State

Likely RLean R
● Jennifer Day● Pat Proctor
14%86%
23%77%

Treasurer

Solid RLean R
● Juan Luengo● Steven JohnsonINC
5%95%
26%74%

Ratings

Toss-up1

Lean R1

Likely R2

Solid R1

Toss-up1

Lean R4

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties.

The Kansas environment

The environment Kansas's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
Kansas state offices vs. the nation
−0.7± 3.9 (80% range) · 3 polled state races
Kansas state-office environment
D+8.80.7 pts more Republican than the nation

The polled state races behind it

← Runs more RepublicanRuns more Democratic →Kansas estimateWeighted, pulled toward the nationKansas GovernorPolls R+4.6 · 17% of the estimateKansas Secretary of StatePolls R+5.1 · 4% of the estimateKansas Attorney GeneralPolls R+4.5 · 3% of the estimate · personal vote, counts less

A candidate who has run far ahead of the seat's usual vote (a long-serving governor, say) counts less: much of that lead is personal, not the state's mood.

Over time

EvenD+5D+10Oct 10Oct 16Kansas D+8.8Nation D+9.5

Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Kansas environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.

U.S. House

4 districts. The national House forecast.

Solid D1

Likely R1

Solid R2

Likely D1

Likely R1

Solid R2

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans).

Kansas City

4 races
DistrictCandidatesChance of winning (D · R)Avg. marginRatingLeanPolls
KS-1
● Lauren Reinhold● Tracey MannINC
<1%>99%
2%98%
R+21.5R+20.6Solid RSolid RR+29—
KS-2
● Don Coover● Derek SchmidtINC
11%89%
12%88%
R+8.5R+10.5Likely RLikely RR+18—
KS-3
● Sharice DavidsINC● Eric Jenkins
99%1%
93%7%
D+18.3D+13.4Solid DLikely DD+5—
KS-4
● Katy Tyndell● Ron EstesINC
2%98%
4%96%
R+16.1R+16.1Solid RSolid RR+24—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).

Kansas Legislature

Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.

Kansas House of Representatives

Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%

Avg. 49 D – 76 R seats · 63 for control · R supermajority now: 6% it holds

Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%

Avg. 48 D – 77 R seats · 63 for control · R supermajority now: 7% it holds

Full forecast

Kansas House of Representatives ratings

10 seats projected to flip: 10 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

8 seats projected to flip: 8 R→D. 4 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D37

Likely D3

Lean D7

Toss-up2

Lean R8

Likely R5

Solid R63

Solid D34

Likely D6

Lean D5

Toss-up5

Lean R7

Likely R7

Solid R61

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.

Closest legislative races

HD-41Jeff PittmanAnn ReinhartFlip risk56%Rep.86%Rep. HD-78Tim LundbergRobyn R. EssexFlip riskFlip risk57%Dem.58%Dem. HD-39Zach MaierAngela StiensD flipFlip risk60%Dem.52%Dem. HD-8Megan PhillipsChris CroftFlip risk64%Rep.55%Rep. HD-121Kelsey StockThomas PalenskeD flipFlip risk65%Dem.53%Dem. HD-88Candace LandersSandy PickertD flipD flip65%Dem.67%Dem.
HD-85Mackenzi TrueloveSteven Brunk66%Rep.60%Rep. HD-52Toni ScaliaJesse Borjon66%Rep.62%Rep. HD-96Jessica MaldonadoTom Kessler68%Rep.66%Rep. HD-3Isaiah HarrisD J Perry76%Rep.83%Rep. HD-117Brandon HollandAdam Turk76%Rep.68%Rep. HD-60Maddison D. GloverMark SchreiberD flipD flip76%Dem.76%Dem.

How Kansas votes

Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.

Senate not on the 2026 ballot

All 40 senators serve four-year terms elected together in presidential years; the next Senate election is in 2028.

Not on the ballot this year

This chamber holds regular elections in other years.

Kansas State Senate

Next regular election: 2028 · 40 seats

9 D · 31 R