Democratic
Jerri Green
Memphis city councilor from the 2nd district (2024–present)
- Experience
- Local office
Tennessee › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Tennessee Governor
Blackburn is very likely to win: Blackburn wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Green (D)
2%
chance of winning
Blackburn (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+14.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+23 to R+7
- Partisan lean
- R+29
- Polls
- 5in our database
Blackburn is very likely to win: Blackburn wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Green (D)
2%
chance of winning
Blackburn (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+15.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to R+6
- Partisan lean
- R+29
- Polls
- 5in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Marsha Blackburn
U.S. senator (2019–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
Independent
David Hatley
Businessman
- Experience
- No elected office
Independent
Lauren Pinkston
Former Lipscomb University professor
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Tennessee state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.47 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 5 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Green | Blackburn | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TargetSmart for The Progress Fund, which supports Green | Sep 9–Sep 12 | 600 LV | 36 | 45 | R+9 | R+13.0 |
| Targoz Market Research for the Beacon Center of Tennessee | Aug 15–Aug 26 | 1,149 RV | 33 | 46 | R+13 | R+19.8 |
| Targoz Market Research for the Beacon Center of Tennessee | Aug 15–Aug 26 | 601 LV | 34 | 55 | R+21 | R+19.8 |
| Targoz Market Research for the Beacon Center of Tennessee | Apr 20–Apr 27 | 1,200 RV | 27 | 51 | R+24 | R+26.6 |
| Quantus InsightsR-sponsored | Aug 5–Aug 7 | 600 RV | 28 | 49 | R+21 | R+22.0 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 12, 2026.
The state
Lean R+29: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 7,066,383
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 50%of adults
- White 71%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 15%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
3,023,130 two-party votes · R+30.1 · R+28.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.1%
Kamala Harris (D)34.9%
2022
1,739,882 votes · R+32.7✓ Bill Lee (R)64.9%
Jason Brantley Martin (D)32.9%
John Gentry (—)0.9%
Constance M. Every (—)0.6%
2020 President Vote in this state
2,996,186 two-party votes · R+23.7 · R+28.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.8%
Joe Biden (D)38.2%
2018
2,243,294 votes · R+21.4✓ Bill Lee (R)59.6%
Karl Dean (D)38.6%
2016 President Vote in this state
2,393,620 two-party votes · R+27.2 · R+29.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)36.4%
2014
1,353,695 votes · R+51.0✓ Bill Haslam (R)70.3%
Charles Brown (D)22.8%
John Jay Hooker (I)2.3%
Shaun Crowell (CST)2.0%
Isa Infante (G)1.4%
2010
1,571,396 votes · R+32.6✓ Bill Haslam (R)66.3%
Mike McWherter (D)33.7%
2006
1,788,344 votes · D+39.5✓ Phil Bredesen (D)69.8%
Jim Bryson (R)30.2%
2002
1,624,087 votes · D+3.1✓ Phil Bredesen (D)51.6%
Van Hilleary (R)48.4%